UTA beat STL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.53 expected goals to 2.31. UTA outshot STL 33 to 24. C. Keller led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Kesselring had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Ingram stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| UTA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 2:05STLT. Tucker0.02 xG
- 1st 6:06UTAM. KesselringPP0.05 xG
- 1st 8:25UTAN. Schmaltz0.26 xG
- 1st 10:31UTAC. Keller0.18 xG
- 2nd 1:32STLJ. NeighboursPP0.30 xG
- 2nd 10:42UTAL. Cooley0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.31 xGUTA 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 3:42 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 3:43 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:25 | 3:51 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:49 | 3:31 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 4:31 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:47 | 3:57 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:44 | 3:54 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:10 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:03 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:04 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:12 | 2:08 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:43 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:26 | 0:29 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:44 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 3:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 58:27 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 15:51 | 3:17 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:42 | 3:22 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:24 | 3:17 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:37 | 1:34 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:29 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:34 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:59 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:11 | 0:52 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:14 | 2:05 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 3:17 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:41 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:50 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:48 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.1, UTA 3.0 | STL 2, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | STL 27.8, UTA 28.6 | STL 24, UTA 33 |
| Win chance | UTA 50% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.6 | 2 | 0.98 | 4 | 32% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.4 | 3 | 0.84 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 6 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.