Game Recap: STL 5, UTA 3, April 16, 2026

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Game Recap

STL5

FinalThu, Apr 16, 2026Every game that night

UTA3

STL beat UTA 5-3, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 2.52. R. Thomas scored three for STL. J. Hofer stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	2	2	5
UTA	1	2	0	3

1st 3:45STLP. Buchnevich0.19 xG
1st 16:55UTAM. Carcone0.06 xG
2nd 0:45UTAL. Crouse0.07 xG
2nd 8:14STLR. Thomas0.22 xG
2nd 11:07STLR. Thomas0.09 xG
2nd 18:52UTAK. Yamamoto0.14 xG
3rd 17:03STLL. Mailloux0.02 xG
3rd 19:22STLR. ThomasEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

STLUTA

29Shots on goal23

2.79Expected goals2.52

50Shot attempts58

265v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/0

17Hits17

13Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways15

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.79 xGUTA 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL29 on goal, 5 scored

UTA23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	3	0	3	3	0	2	+2	0	16:54	1:05
D. Holloway	LW	0	2	2	2	2	2	+2	0	17:06	1:06
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	16:34	1:06
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	14:42	0:55
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	13:48	0:54
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	13:38	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:03	0:44
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	3	2	-2	0	14:47	1:05
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:23	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:13	0:09
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	14:05	0:46
L. Mailloux	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+3	0	22:34	0:44
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+3	2	22:11	1:16
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:44	0:10
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:51	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:04	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	23	20	3	.870	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	20:14	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	21:02	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	-2	0	18:35	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:49	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:11	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	18:15	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:29	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	13:51	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:06	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:52	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	2	17:29	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:14	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:25	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	16:27	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:25	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:21	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	18	15	3	.833	40:00
V. Vanecek	10	9	1	.900	18:31	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1A. Toropchenko14:25J. Finley14:04N. Walker14:23

Line 2R. Thomas13:46D. Holloway13:41J. Snuggerud13:44

Line 3J. Berggren14:19J. Neighbours13:42D. Dvorsky13:06

Line 4P. Buchnevich12:34P. Suter13:38J. Kyrou11:59

Pair 1L. Mailloux19:27P. Broberg19:26

Pair 2J. Holl18:04T. Tucker17:26

Pair 3C. Fowler17:51C. Parayko17:00

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:32C. Keller17:55L. Crouse16:27

Line 2M. Carcone17:37J. Peterka18:35A. Kerfoot15:02

Line 3L. O'Brien12:06K. Stenlund13:39B. Tanev11:41

Line 4K. Yamamoto13:11L. Cooley11:39

Pair 1N. Schmidt15:00J. Marino17:34

Pair 2M. Weegar16:55M. Sergachev16:48

Pair 3I. Cole14:46N. DeSimone15:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, UTA 3.3	STL 5, UTA 3
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	STL 24.2, UTA 28.1	STL 29, UTA 23
Win chance	UTA 55%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA C. Keller	2.6	1	1.01	2	30%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.5	2	0.80	2	28%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	1	0.84	0	29%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.3	2	0.73	1	24%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.0	2	0.59	1	25%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	0	0.80	0	30%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	1	0.69	0	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.50	1	24%	1
UTA M. Weegar	1.8	1	0.38	2	8%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.7	3	0.52	1	22%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	3	0.39	1	19%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.6	3	0.93	3	24%	3
STL L. Mailloux	1.5	2	0.32	1	8%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	2	0.59	1	22%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.4	2	0.30	0	8%	0
STL P. Suter	1.3	1	0.38	1	17%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	2	0.43	1	8%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	2	0.30	0	15%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	0	0.41	0	17%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.1	2	0.49	0	20%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.43	0	15%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	2	0.29	1	14%	1
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.0	1	0.36	1	5%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	1	0.22	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	1	0.14	0	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
UTA D. Simashev	0.9	1	0.08	0	2%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.23	0	3%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.8	2	0.20	0	4%	0
STL N. Walker	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	2	0.35	1	4%	0
STL J. Holl	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0
STL J. Finley	0.6	3	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.