Game Recap: STL 3, VGK 4, October 11, 2024

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Game Recap

STL3

FinalFri, Oct 11, 2024Every game that night

VGK4

VGK beat STL 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 2.76 expected goals to 1.97. P. Buchnevich led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Hill stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	1	3
VGK	2	1	1	4

1st 6:47STLP. Buchnevich0.08 xG
1st 8:02VGKJ. Eichel0.17 xG
1st 18:13VGKI. Barbashev0.25 xG
2nd 2:55VGKS. Theodore0.09 xG
2nd 7:29STLP. BuchnevichPP0.12 xG
3rd 12:53VGKN. Roy0.08 xG
3rd 15:04STLR. Thomas0.23 xG

Team Stats

STLVGK

22Shots on goal28

1.97Expected goals2.76

50Shot attempts51

215v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play0/2

20Hits11

11Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways18

10Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.97 xGVGK 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL22 on goal, 3 scored

VGK28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	2	1	3	4	0	1	+2	0	20:39	2:38
J. Kyrou	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	2	20:39	2:39
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	21:34	2:37
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	19:09	2:37
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-3	0	17:21	0:50
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:35	0:51
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:20	0:51
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	13:07	0:50
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:55	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:59	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:30	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:21	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	25:53	2:36
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-2	0	20:38	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:30	0:51
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:54	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:55	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	12:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	28	24	4	.857	59:22	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+2	0	20:08	2:48
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	20:02	2:10
I. Barbashev	LW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+2	0	18:11	1:27
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:01	1:50
C. Schwindt	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	9:01	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:13	2:34
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:02	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:07	1:46
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:44	2:13
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	11:32	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:04	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	2	21:25	2:17
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	22:29	1:12
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	20:02	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	0	19:16	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	18:15	1:43
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	22	19	3	.864	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIvan Barbashev VGK Faces STL, his team until Feb 20231 G, 1 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, VGK 3.6	STL 3, VGK 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	STL 27.9, VGK 32.9	STL 22, VGK 28
Win chance	VGK 62%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	4.5	5	1.15	2	37%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	0	0.76	2	29%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	1	0.71	0	27%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.3	2	0.93	2	30%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.3	3	0.70	2	10%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	2.3	4	0.74	3	26%	2
STL B. Schenn	2.3	2	0.62	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.2	1	0.57	0	11%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.2	0	0.49	0	23%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.1	0	0.50	1	9%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.0	2	0.47	1	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	2.0	1	0.43	0	23%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	2	0.87	1	22%	1
STL Z. Bolduc	1.8	2	0.38	0	16%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.8	2	0.31	1	7%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.7	1	0.35	0	18%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.6	0	0.38	0	12%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.6	1	0.33	0	13%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	3	0.62	2	22%	1
VGK N. Hague	1.5	1	0.20	0	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.5	1	0.26	0	14%	0
STL K. Kapanen	1.5	1	0.34	0	12%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.5	2	0.38	0	19%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.5	2	0.47	1	16%	1
STL D. Holloway	1.4	0	0.26	0	13%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.31	0	5%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
STL P. Joseph	1.2	2	0.25	0	5%	0
STL N. Leddy	1.1	0	0.31	0	4%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	0.9	2	0.22	1	5%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.23	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	2	0.15	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.