Game Recap: STL 5, VGK 4 (SO), January 20, 2025

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Game Recap

STL5

Final/SOMon, Jan 20, 2025Every game that night

VGK4

STL beat VGK 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.21 expected goals to 3.85. S. Theodore led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). B. Saad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Binnington stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
STL	2	2	0	1	5
VGK	1	1	2	0	4

1st 8:25STLB. Schenn0.03 xG
1st 14:09VGKT. HertlPP0.34 xG
1st 19:43STLN. Walker0.20 xG
2nd 6:31STLJ. Neighbours0.08 xG
2nd 7:25VGKB. Howden0.08 xG
2nd 19:29STLC. FowlerPP0.06 xG
3rd 16:50VGKJ. Eichel0.04 xG
3rd 19:30VGKP. Dorofeyev0.08 xG

Team Stats

STLVGK

28Shots on goal32

2.21Expected goals3.85

52Shot attempts82

235v5 shots on goal24

1/2Power play1/2

16Hits22

26Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways15

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.21 xGVGK 3.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL27 on goal, 4 scored

VGK31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	18:58	1:30
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	2	19:27	1:05
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	-1	0	19:17	1:02
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0	17:52	1:24
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:23	1:24
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	16:05	1:03
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:47	0:00
N. Walker	LW	1	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	10:55	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	15:57	1:22
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:08	0:57
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	13:55	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:37	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+2	0	27:34	0:00
C. Fowler	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	26:16	1:25
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:10	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	2	18:10	1:03
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:13	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	32	28	4	.875	65:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	1	2	6	0	1	+2	0	24:11	2:52
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	19:02	2:53
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	16:13	2:51
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	2	13:29	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	23:02	3:03
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	+2	0	17:46	0:06
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:36	0:18
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:34	0:17
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:56	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	12:02	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:56	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	10:46	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	4	4	1	0	0	+2	0	24:16	3:06
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	7	-1	0	23:31	0:16
B. McNabb	D	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	17:09	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	21:35	0:03
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:22	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	28	24	4	.857	62:54	OT loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamIvan Barbashev VGK Faces STL, his team until Feb 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.7, VGK 3.3	STL 5, VGK 4
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	STL 25.7, VGK 31.7	STL 28, VGK 32
Win chance	VGK 60%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	6	1.09	2	32%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	2	0.64	2	31%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	0	0.75	2	30%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	4	0.70	1	26%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.2	3	0.58	1	22%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	4	0.63	0	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.74	4	11%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	1.00	0	30%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	2.0	1	0.58	0	27%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	2	0.48	1	9%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	1	0.68	1	24%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	2	0.46	0	11%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	2	0.59	1	20%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.8	3	0.78	1	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	1	0.35	1	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	2	0.42	1	21%	1
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.61	0	22%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	5	0.39	1	19%	1
STL J. Faulk	1.4	2	0.37	0	7%	0
STL B. Saad	1.4	6	0.39	0	18%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	0	0.42	0	15%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	0	0.31	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.24	1	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.41	1	7%	1
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	1	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	0	0.26	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	1	0.26	1	6%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	2	0.23	1	9%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	3	0.24	1	12%	1
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	2	0.20	0	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.30	0	11%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	1	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.