Game Recap: STL 1, WSH 6, November 5, 2025

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Game Recap

STL1

FinalWed, Nov 5, 2025Every game that night

WSH6

WSH beat STL 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.88 expected goals to 2.28. WSH outshot STL 32 to 24. J. Chychrun led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Wilson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Thompson stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	1	1
WSH	1	4	1	6

1st 9:50WSHT. WilsonPP0.12 xG
2nd 2:39WSHA. Ovechkin0.05 xG
2nd 4:33WSHA. Beauvillier0.10 xG
2nd 9:28WSHJ. Carlson0.16 xG
2nd 16:20WSHA. Beauvillier0.07 xG
3rd 0:37STLA. ToropchenkoSH0.08 xG
3rd 9:00WSHT. Wilson0.40 xG

Team Stats

STLWSH

24Shots on goal32

2.28Expected goals3.88

51Shot attempts70

175v5 shots on goal27

0/3Power play1/3

27Hits8

22Blocked shots14

9Penalty minutes11

16Giveaways16

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.28 xGWSH 3.88 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL24 on goal, 1 scored

WSH32 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	16:26	2:12
A. Toropchenko	RW	1	0	1	1	6	0	-1	0	12:53	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-3	0	17:41	2:13
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:39	3:11
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	16:48	3:06
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:44	3:08
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:43	2:12
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:23	3:13
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	15:08	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	5	14:10	1:03
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:44	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	7:43	0:43
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	18:33	1:54
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	25:07	3:29
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	21:26	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	20:16	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	15:35	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	13:52	0:26

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	15	11	4	.733	29:28	Loss
J. Hofer	17	15	2	.882	30:32

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Beauvillier	RW	2	0	2	2	0	1	+3	0	15:10	0:21
T. Wilson	RW	2	0	2	5	1	1	+2	2	13:54	2:40
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:40	3:05
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:40	0:40
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	2	16:34	3:02
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	16:19	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	15:27	0:08
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:01	0:08
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:26	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	13:22	0:26
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	11:53	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	11:32	0:11
J. Chychrun	D	0	3	3	3	0	2	+3	0	22:47	3:02
J. Carlson	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	21:05	2:57
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:45	0:21
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	19:34	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:58	0:29
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+3	2	20:02	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	24	23	1	.958	59:51	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1N. Walker12:49A. Toropchenko11:42N. Bjugstad10:24

Line 2P. Buchnevich12:57R. Thomas12:31J. Snuggerud14:04

Line 3B. Schenn13:07J. Kyrou14:22P. Suter13:34

Line 4D. Holloway15:19D. Dvorsky13:33O. Sundqvist6:30

Pair 1C. Parayko18:49P. Broberg17:19

Pair 2J. Faulk20:19C. Fowler15:59

Pair 3T. Tucker15:05L. Mailloux13:17

WSH

Line 1S. Milano15:19H. Lapierre13:53R. Leonard15:00

Line 2A. Ovechkin13:25A. Beauvillier14:04D. Strome13:23

Line 3N. Dowd12:41J. Sourdif12:57B. Duhaime11:04

Line 4T. Wilson9:32A. Protas9:20C. McMichael10:04

Pair 1J. Chychrun19:22M. Roy18:32

Pair 2T. Riemsdyk15:37R. Sandin15:07

Pair 3J. Carlson16:03M. Fehérváry16:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConnor McMichael STL First game back in Washington, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
Old teamJordan Kyrou WSH First game against STL since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, WSH 3.0	STL 1, WSH 6
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	STL 24.8, WSH 26.0	STL 24, WSH 32
Win chance	WSH 53%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	3	0.96	1	39%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	3	0.60	3	19%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	2	0.69	0	29%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.3	3	0.66	0	23%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	3	0.64	2	12%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	2	0.37	2	16%	2
WSH A. Protas	2.0	2	0.77	0	24%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	5	0.76	2	30%	2
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	1	0.72	0	25%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	2	0.57	0	23%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.8	2	0.48	0	18%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.41	0	9%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	0	0.37	0	10%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	1	0.82	0	25%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	2	0.48	1	21%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.6	1	0.34	1	15%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	1	0.87	0	21%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	0	0.56	0	20%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.5	2	0.28	0	14%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	2	0.33	0	9%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	1	0.46	1	8%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	2	0.28	0	14%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	1	0.22	1	10%	1
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	3	0.33	0	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.29	1	7%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.0	0	0.21	0	13%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.35	1	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.32	0	10%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.9	3	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	1	0.34	0	10%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.8	1	0.20	0	6%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.18	1	3%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 30 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.