Game Recap: TBL 1, ANA 4, January 5, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL1

FinalSun, Jan 5, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat TBL 4-1, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 2.89. TBL outshot ANA 37 to 26. F. Vatrano led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). V. Hedman had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Gibson stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	1	0	1
ANA	2	0	2	4

1st 5:24ANAT. Terry0.04 xG
1st 17:03ANAF. Vatrano0.08 xG
2nd 9:12TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.10 xG
3rd 16:26ANAJ. LaCombe0.16 xG
3rd 18:28ANAF. VatranoEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

TBLANA

37Shots on goal26

2.89Expected goals3.62

82Shot attempts46

345v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play0/1

26Hits31

11Blocked shots24

2Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways16

6Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.89 xGANA 3.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL37 on goal, 1 scored

ANA25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	2	22:46	2:00
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-2	0	20:02	1:58
B. Point	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	18:53	1:59
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	18:46	2:02
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	7	1	1	-3	0	18:10	0:35
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:36	0:36
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	13:51	0:37
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:25	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	12:22	0:33
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:32	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:52	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:34	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	8	0	1	0	0	23:55	1:50
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:21	0:45
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-4	0	19:50	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	18:35	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	16:48	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	25	22	3	.880	58:55	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Vatrano	RW	2	1	3	2	1	1	+3	2	16:43	0:52
T. Terry	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+3	0	17:12	0:52
R. Strome	C	0	2	2	5	0	3	+3	0	16:19	0:51
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:10	1:10
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:55	0:50
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:42	1:09
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:34	1:08
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:10	1:08
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	13:24	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:28	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	11:04	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:38	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	23:49	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:41	0:59
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	21:49	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	9	2	+2	0	20:07	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	17:24	1:01
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	15:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Killorn ANA Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20231 A, 1 SOG
BirthdayZemgus Girgensons TBL Turns 31 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.5, ANA 3.1	TBL 1, ANA 4
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	TBL 29.2, ANA 29.5	TBL 37, ANA 26
Win chance	TBL 56%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.2	2	0.65	3	30%	2
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	3	1.50	1	34%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	1	1.02	1	37%	1
TBL B. Point	2.6	2	1.16	1	42%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.5	2	0.84	2	30%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	3	1.00	0	32%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	8	0.79	0	14%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	0	0.59	0	22%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	2.0	0	0.25	0	14%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	3	0.47	0	15%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	5	0.60	2	19%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.8	2	0.58	0	27%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	2	0.34	0	9%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	7	0.67	0	23%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.56	1	23%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	2	0.30	1	7%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	3	0.51	0	22%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	0	0.24	0	11%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.5	0	0.46	1	19%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.5	1	0.40	1	11%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	1.4	2	0.38	0	6%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	1	0.34	0	16%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	2	0.26	0	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	0	0.29	0	13%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	3	0.32	0	4%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.1	2	0.31	0	16%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	0	0.28	0	9%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.30	0	6%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	2	0.19	0	2%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.22	0	12%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	8%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	2	0.16	0	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.