Game Recap: TBL 8, BUF 3, November 11, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL8

FinalWed, Nov 11, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

TBL beat BUF 8-3, with the chances close: 3.56 expected goals to 3.26. BUF outshot TBL 31 to 22. J. Carlson led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). J. Quinn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	2	2	4	8
BUF	0	2	1	3

1st 18:49TBLS. Sabourin0.52 xG
1st 19:38TBLJ. CarlsonPP0.14 xG
2nd 4:33TBLB. Hagel0.30 xG
2nd 13:02TBLY. Gourde0.30 xG
2nd 15:54BUFJ. DoanPP0.33 xG
2nd 19:32BUFJ. Zucker0.09 xG
3rd 0:33BUFT. Thompson0.02 xG
3rd 1:25TBLN. Kucherov0.16 xG
3rd 4:11TBLN. Kucherov0.13 xG
3rd 14:13TBLN. KucherovPP0.06 xG
3rd 15:06TBLB. Hagel0.11 xG

Team Stats

TBLBUF

22Shots on goal31

3.56Expected goals3.26

34Shot attempts60

155v5 shots on goal26

2/4Power play1/3

33Hits17

10Blocked shots4

8Penalty minutes10

17Giveaways13

1Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.56 xGBUF 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL22 on goal, 8 scored

BUF30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	0	4	4	1	1	0	+2	0	20:27	3:44
N. Kucherov	RW	3	1	4	5	0	0	+3	0	17:30	3:42
B. Hagel	LW	2	1	3	5	1	0	+4	0	17:10	2:30
A. Cirelli	C	0	3	3	1	0	1	+2	0	15:11	1:27
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:56	0:00
S. O'Reilly	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	0	12:56	2:41
C. Geekie	C	0	1	1	2	5	0	+1	0	10:05	1:29
S. Sabourin	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	7:18	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	18:01	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	16:16	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	15:42	2:04
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	8:31	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	4	5	1	0	3	+4	0	22:43	3:07
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+5	0	20:04	3:13
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	22:40	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	22:24	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	19:18	1:58
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	31	28	3	.903	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:51	3:48
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-4	0	18:34	3:47
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	6	1	0	-4	2	18:23	3:46
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:29	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	15:08	1:58
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	14:37	2:00
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	2	13:26	1:59
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	13:22	2:04
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	2	18:49	3:50
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:26	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:40	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:13	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	25:11	4:09
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	23:12	1:39
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:24	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:01	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	14	9	5	.643	41:25	Loss
C. Ellis	8	5	3	.625	18:32

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Z. Girgensons14:53I. Mikheyev14:20P. Holmberg12:52

Line 2Y. Gourde14:38J. Guentzel15:00S. O'Reilly10:15

Line 3N. Kucherov13:22B. Hagel10:53A. Cirelli10:07

Line 4J. Viel8:31C. Geekie8:36S. Sabourin7:18

Pair 1J. Carlson16:55C. D'Astous15:47

Pair 2J. Moser19:16V. Hedman13:09

Pair 3R. McDonagh18:56E. Cernak10:02

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson16:21P. Krebs16:48Z. Benson14:30

Line 2J. Quinn13:57N. Ostlund13:02J. Zucker12:37

Line 3S. Carrick6:10B. Malenstyn6:13T. Kozak8:24

Line 4J. Norris13:10J. Doan10:14

Pair 1M. Samuelsson17:17R. Dahlin20:10

Pair 2O. Power18:26O. Zellweger16:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+115	-135	3	Under
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	-152	+160	5	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	+115	-115	1	Under
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+110	-120	6	Over
TBL N. Kucherov	2.5	-154	+126	5	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	-105	-120	3	Over
BUF Z. Benson	2.5	+142	-160	4	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	-104	-115	1	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	+111	-125	1	Under
TBL J. Carlson	1.5	+115	+120	1	Under
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-115	-105	1	Under
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	+112	-125	2	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	+120	-150	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	-150	+130	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	1.5	+110	-130	1	Under
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	+125	-150	2	Over

8 of 35 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+155	-175	2	Over
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+750	-800	0	Under
TBL C. Geekie	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
BUF C. Timmins	0.5	+1650	-3500	0	Under
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+1800	-2500	0	Under
TBL I. Mikheyev	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+550	-1200	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+350	-600	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+145	-190	0	Under
TBL J. Moser	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
TBL J. Viel	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+370	-650	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+1050	-2000	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+165	-180	3	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+325	-475	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
TBL P. Holmberg	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+390	-550	0	Under
TBL R. McDonagh	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	+600	-1400	1	Over
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+155	-190	1	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
TBL Y. Gourde	0.5	+425	-650	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+295	-390	0	Under
TBL Z. Girgensons	0.5	+850	-3000	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under

10 of 19 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+225	-275	3	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+120	-152	1	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+142	-190	1	Over
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+240	-425	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+145	-175	4	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+115	-130	4	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+280	-325	1	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	-193	+165	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+215	-290	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+350	-425	0	Under
TBL Y. Gourde	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+120	-140	0	Under

15 of 20 overs hit (75%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
TBL N. Kucherov	1.5	+114	-120	4	Over
TBL A. Cirelli	0.5	+100	-125	3	Over
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	-180	+155	3	Over
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+110	-135	1	Over
TBL E. Cernak	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	-105	-118	5	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+160	-175	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	-220	+177	4	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+140	-155	1	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-132	+110	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+170	-230	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+150	-185	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-150	+125	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-190	+150	1	Over
TBL V. Hedman	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
TBL Y. Gourde	0.5	+180	-190	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
TBL B. Hagel	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
TBL C. D'Astous	0.5	+230	-325	1	Over
TBL J. Carlson	0.5	+250	-350	2	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
TBL J. Guentzel	0.5	+180	-250	2	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+450	-1200	1	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TBL N. Kucherov	0.5	+140	-150	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+333	-450	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+400	-1100	1	Over
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BUF U. Luukkonen	24.5	-120	-105	9	Under
TBL A. Vasilevskiy	23.5	-108	-110	28	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneAnthony Cirelli TBL Plays his 600th game3 A, 1 SOG
MilestoneJosh Norris BUF 3 points from 200Not yet: 1 A, 1 SOG
MilestonePeyton Krebs BUF 1 assist from 100Got there: 1 A, 1 SOG
MilestoneTage Thompson BUF 1 assist from 200Not yet: 1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.5, BUF 3.2	TBL 8, BUF 3
Total goals	6.6	11
Shots on goal	TBL 27.6, BUF 26.9	TBL 22, BUF 31
Win chance	TBL 54%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	5	1.52	4	38%	3
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	5	1.02	3	37%	2
BUF T. Thompson	2.6	3	0.83	1	33%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	6	0.78	1	28%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	3	0.84	0	19%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	1	0.94	4	34%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.3	4	0.83	0	26%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.9	0	0.66	1	23%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.70	3	26%	0
TBL J. Carlson	1.7	1	0.58	5	11%	1
BUF O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.33	0	10%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.6	1	0.45	1	20%	1
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	2	0.44	1	20%	1
BUF O. Power	1.4	2	0.53	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	0	0.42	1	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	1	0.40	0	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.4	1	0.49	1	23%	0
TBL I. Mikheyev	1.4	0	0.39	0	18%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.3	1	0.51	1	10%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.2	2	0.37	1	13%	1
TBL V. Hedman	1.2	0	0.40	0	7%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.1	2	0.25	1	13%	0
TBL J. Viel	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.23	0	4%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	0	0.24	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	1	0.42	1	12%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
BUF R. McLeod	0.9	1	0.41	1	13%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.20	0	8%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.7	1	0.29	0	4%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	1	0.17	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	1	0.19	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.