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Game Recap
TBL6
CBJ7
CBJ beat TBL 7-6 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.74 expected goals to 3.32. CBJ outshot TBL 43 to 30. Z. Werenski led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. E. Merzlikins stopped 24 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| CBJ | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
- 1st 1:51TBLB. PointPP0.29 xG
- 1st 3:58TBLB. Hagel0.50 xG
- 1st 11:52TBLC. Atkinson0.12 xG
- 1st 13:35CBJS. Monahan0.06 xG
- 2nd 0:28CBJD. Voronkov0.20 xG
- 2nd 1:55CBJK. JohnsonPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 2:11TBLM. Chaffee0.26 xG
- 2nd 3:42CBJZ. Werenski0.07 xG
- 2nd 5:26CBJE. Chinakhov0.10 xG
- 2nd 6:18TBLA. Cirelli0.25 xG
- 3rd 10:39CBJK. JohnsonSH0.19 xG
- 3rd 11:23TBLC. GeekiePP0.06 xG
- OT 1:26CBJZ. Werenski0.06 xG
Team Stats
TBLCBJ
30Shots on goal43
3.32Expected goals3.74
59Shot attempts91
245v5 shots on goal39
2/2Power play1/1
21Hits28
32Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.32 xGCBJ 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:01 | 1:29 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:39 | 1:29 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:34 | 0:44 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:44 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:29 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:29 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:44 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:44 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:28 | 0:44 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 0 | 22:47 | 1:29 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 43 | 36 | 7 | .837 | 60:33 | OT loss |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:49 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:49 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:49 |
| K. Johnson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:49 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Danforth | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 27:24 | 0:49 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 24:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:00 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 30 | 24 | 6 | .800 | 61:26 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.6, CBJ 3.2 | TBL 6, CBJ 7 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 13 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 30.0, CBJ 30.7 | TBL 30, CBJ 43 |
| Win chance | TBL 57% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.6 | 6 | 1.77 | 3 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.4 | 1 | 1.20 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.0 | 8 | 0.77 | 5 | 15% | 2 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 3 | 1.05 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.5 | 0 | 0.93 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 1 | 1.07 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.4 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 4 | 24% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.7 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.3 | 5 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.