Game Recap: TBL 2, CBJ 3, October 18, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TBL2

FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

CBJ3

CBJ beat TBL 3-2, with the chances close: 2.85 expected goals to 3.01. J. Guentzel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Greaves stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	2	0	0	2
CBJ	1	1	1	3

1st 4:58CBJK. Johnson0.24 xG
1st 12:42TBLR. McDonagh0.01 xG
1st 16:22TBLA. CirelliPP0.16 xG
2nd 13:59CBJD. Severson0.12 xG
3rd 1:15CBJK. Marchenko0.15 xG

Team Stats

TBLCBJ

24Shots on goal31

3.01Expected goals2.85

62Shot attempts63

145v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/2

14Hits23

15Blocked shots18

13Penalty minutes17

21Giveaways18

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.01 xGCBJ 2.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL24 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	23:06	2:08
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	2	20:46	2:42
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:49	0:08
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	2	23:06	1:21
B. Point	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:09	2:56
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:37	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:39	2:46
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:49	1:08
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	11:51	2:15
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:40	1:08
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:14	0:09
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	5:05	0:07
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	24:23	3:00
R. McDonagh	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	-2	0	19:55	0:16
E. Cernak	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	16:58	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	21:24	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:56	1:16
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	14:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	31	28	3	.903	57:57	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:34	1:40
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	4	18:27	2:01
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	17:30	2:17
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	7	15:38	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	2	15:02	1:59
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	14:43	2:02
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:51	2:02
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:17	2:01
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	2	18:11	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:22	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6:47	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	25:02	2:14
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	19:32	1:43
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	+1	0	24:48	1:57
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	+1	0	21:22	0:04
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:51	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	10:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	24	22	2	.917	59:53	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1B. Hagel16:32B. Point14:21J. Guentzel14:21

Line 2Y. Gourde15:27O. Bjorkstrand11:25P. Holmberg13:41

Line 3A. Cirelli15:47C. Geekie12:41G. Goncalves8:40

Line 4J. Finley7:05C. Douglas4:58M. Chaffee7:32

Pair 1V. Hedman16:52J. Moser18:38

Pair 2R. McDonagh16:24E. Cernak14:01

Pair 3D. Raddysh15:13E. Lilleberg14:12

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier12:53C. Sillinger14:25C. Coyle13:40

Line 2B. Jenner15:01A. Fantilli13:03K. Johnson11:28

Line 3S. Monahan13:28K. Marchenko13:43D. Voronkov11:57

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese7:48I. Lundestrom8:31E. Chinakhov6:40

Pair 1Z. Werenski19:15D. Mateychuk18:31

Pair 2D. Severson16:40I. Provorov17:19

Pair 3D. Fabbro13:07J. Christiansen10:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayKent Johnson CBJ Turns 23 that day1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, CBJ 3.3	TBL 2, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	TBL 27.9, CBJ 29.8	TBL 24, CBJ 31
Win chance	TBL 50%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	0	0.79	1	19%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.1	7	1.04	1	39%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	5	0.77	1	31%	1
TBL B. Point	2.6	1	0.99	0	40%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	4	0.87	0	29%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.4	3	0.60	1	27%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	3	0.62	1	26%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	2	0.78	1	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	1	0.75	0	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	0	0.53	1	23%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	4	0.65	1	24%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	0	0.57	0	22%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	3	0.63	1	22%	1
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.6	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	3	0.36	0	14%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	0	0.47	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	4	0.40	0	9%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.34	1	15%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	0	0.29	0	8%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.3	1	0.38	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.3	1	0.43	1	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	1	0.35	1	10%	1
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	0	0.46	0	15%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	1	0.37	1	5%	1
TBL E. Cernak	1.1	0	0.23	1	4%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	2	0.28	1	12%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	1	0.23	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	3	0.25	0	7%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	0	0.21	0	12%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	0	0.18	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	1	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.