Game Recap: TBL 5, CBJ 8, January 24, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalSat, Jan 24, 2026Every game that night

CBJ8

CBJ beat TBL 8-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 2.21. M. Marchment scored three for CBJ. O. Bjorkstrand had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Greaves stopped 25 of 30.

Team Stats

TBLCBJ

30Shots on goal31

2.21Expected goals3.70

65Shot attempts50

255v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play1/2

22Hits27

9Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.21 xGCBJ 3.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL30 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ30 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	3	4	3	1	0	+1	0	22:43	2:20
J. Guentzel	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	-1	0	19:03	2:20
A. Cirelli	C	1	2	3	1	2	0	0	0	17:23	0:39
B. Hagel	LW	0	2	2	2	2	0	-1	0	18:04	1:59
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	15:58	1:54
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	2	15:40	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:25	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:04	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:02	0:13
D. James	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:49	0:13
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:53	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	4:23	0:34
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	1	3	3	1	-4	0	27:36	1:48
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	26:56	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	2	21:53	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	17:20	0:45
S. Lundmark	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	16:45	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	4:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	29	23	6	.793	57:54	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	3	1	4	3	1	0	+2	2	17:23	1:31
A. Fantilli	C	1	2	3	3	2	0	+1	0	17:26	1:16
C. Coyle	C	1	2	3	2	2	2	+3	0	17:13	1:15
K. Marchenko	RW	0	2	2	3	1	1	+2	0	17:35	0:39
C. Sillinger	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:43	0:00
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:26	0:55
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	3	5	1	-1	2	13:08	0:54
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	15:58	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:12	1:38
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:01	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	12:46	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	10:06	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	26:35	1:57
E. Gudbranson	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+3	0	23:23	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	26:16	0:32
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	2	23:38	0:13
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:04	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	30	25	5	.833	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:59Z. Girgensons14:42P. Holmberg14:04

Line 2J. Guentzel13:37D. James13:36N. Kucherov17:42

Line 3N. Paul13:01O. Bjorkstrand11:25J. Pelletier11:53

Line 4A. Cirelli12:32B. Hagel12:05

Pair 1D. Raddysh22:13J. Moser22:28

Pair 2D. Carlile20:33S. Lundmark16:45

Pair 3C. D'Astous15:32E. Cernak4:59

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment15:17A. Fantilli14:31K. Marchenko15:20

Line 2C. Coyle14:41M. Olivier14:03C. Sillinger13:58

Line 3S. Monahan11:43K. Johnson11:24B. Jenner10:58

Line 4I. Lundestrom10:31D. Voronkov10:53D. Heinen10:06

Pair 1Z. Werenski20:51D. Severson22:14

Pair 2E. Gudbranson20:31I. Provorov20:16

Pair 3E. Zamula13:04J. Christiansen5:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, CBJ 3.0	TBL 5, CBJ 8
Total goals	6.5	13
Shots on goal	TBL 28.0, CBJ 28.1	TBL 30, CBJ 31
Win chance	TBL 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	3	0.86	2	21%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	3	1.49	4	35%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.9	2	1.04	2	33%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	3	0.66	3	28%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	4	0.98	3	35%	2
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	3	0.71	2	29%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	3	0.80	1	17%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	4	0.54	0	25%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	3	0.57	4	24%	3
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	1	0.34	0	8%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	2	0.55	3	21%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	1	0.55	3	20%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	5	0.56	0	20%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.52	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	2	0.35	1	13%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	2	0.55	1	19%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	1	0.39	0	9%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	2	0.44	0	14%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.4	1	0.35	0	17%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.4	1	0.34	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.4	3	0.35	1	17%	1
TBL J. Moser	1.3	1	0.32	0	9%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.32	0	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.21	0	11%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.3	2	0.38	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.22	1	5%	0
TBL J. Pelletier	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	0	0.31	0	12%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	0	0.38	0	13%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	2	0.21	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.7	1	0.14	0	6%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	1	0.09	0	2%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.