Game Recap: TBL 3, CGY 4 (OT), March 22, 2026

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Game Recap

TBL3

Final/OTSun, Mar 22, 2026Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat TBL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.55. Z. Whitecloud had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. D. Cooley stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	1	1	1	0	3
CGY	2	1	0	1	4

1st 7:25TBLR. McDonagh0.04 xG
1st 16:25CGYV. Olofsson0.09 xG
1st 16:52CGYM. Frost0.14 xG
2nd 8:28CGYM. Backlund0.08 xG
2nd 11:47TBLD. Raddysh0.10 xG
3rd 15:40TBLP. Holmberg0.22 xG
OT 0:26CGYR. Strome0.15 xG

Team Stats

TBLCGY

35Shots on goal29

2.55Expected goals2.61

64Shot attempts50

355v5 shots on goal28

0/1Power play0/0

16Hits23

4Blocked shots16

0Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways19

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.55 xGCGY 2.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL35 on goal, 3 scored

CGY29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	20:57	1:36
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	15:38	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	14:40	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	13:53	0:49
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	19:34	1:34
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	19:13	1:11
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	17:56	0:26
B. Point	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	17:22	1:34
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	14:34	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	10:21	0:24
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	10:18	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	9:55	0:26
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	24:39	1:31
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	23:08	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	16:11	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:19	0:29
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:23	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	16:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	29	25	4	.862	59:39	OT loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:49	0:00
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	18:44	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	18:01	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:46	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:16	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:54	0:00
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:21	0:00
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	13:50	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	17:47	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	10:20	0:00
T. Gross	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8:07	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	4	3	4	+1	0	23:03	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	4	0	+2	0	22:46	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	20:20	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	6	0	0	23:55	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	15:36	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	35	32	3	.914	60:26	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli16:46B. Hagel16:54N. Kucherov18:34

Line 2J. Guentzel17:13B. Point15:14G. Goncalves13:04

Line 3Y. Gourde15:38P. Holmberg14:40Z. Girgensons14:34

Line 4C. Perry9:17N. Paul10:18O. Bjorkstrand9:29

Pair 1D. Raddysh22:21J. Moser22:35

Pair 2C. D'Astous18:50E. Lilleberg18:23

Pair 3R. McDonagh16:11E. Cernak16:04

CGY

Line 1R. Strome18:23Y. Sharangovich17:13V. Olofsson15:16

Line 2M. Backlund17:16J. Farabee17:11B. Coleman16:35

Line 3M. Frost14:21M. Coronato14:09M. Gridin13:27

Line 4M. Pospisil9:47A. Klapka10:18T. Gross7:20

Pair 1O. Määttä23:11H. Brzustewicz20:20

Pair 2Z. Whitecloud21:48K. Bahl20:17

Pair 3J. Hanley14:51Z. Parekh14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrayden Point TBL Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, CGY 2.8	TBL 3, CGY 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	TBL 28.0, CGY 28.7	TBL 35, CGY 29
Win chance	TBL 56%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	3	1.44	1	33%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	2	0.88	0	29%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.5	2	0.56	1	24%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	5	0.67	1	13%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	1	0.85	0	32%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	4	0.52	1	22%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	2	0.52	1	19%	1
TBL B. Point	2.0	3	0.86	0	33%	0
CGY M. Gridin	2.0	3	0.46	1	17%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.8	3	0.44	1	21%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	1	0.40	1	21%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.46	1	18%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	0	0.41	0	18%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.44	0	17%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	4	0.56	0	19%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.4	2	0.47	1	15%	1
TBL C. Perry	1.4	0	0.39	0	18%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	1	0.38	1	13%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.3	2	0.31	0	16%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.2	0	0.17	1	6%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	1	0.28	1	6%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.2	0	0.25	0	7%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.2	1	0.43	1	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	2	0.18	0	10%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	1	0.22	0	7%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.0	3	0.26	1	11%	1
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	4	0.20	1	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.23	1	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.31	1	5%	1
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	3	0.27	0	5%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	3	0.12	0	2%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	2	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.