TBL beat DAL 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.12 expected goals to 1.98. TBL outshot DAL 38 to 24. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Guentzel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:35TBLB. Hagel0.11 xG
- 2nd 7:21TBLA. Cirelli0.17 xG
- 2nd 7:58DALO. Bäck0.07 xG
- 2nd 13:48DALM. MarchmentPP0.57 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.12 xGDAL 1.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:50 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:48 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 1:12 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:48 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 1:10 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 | 1:13 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:45 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:16 | 1:12 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26:08 | 1:17 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:43 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:02 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 2:20 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:54 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 2:10 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:07 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:39 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:18 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:39 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:40 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31:11 | 2:57 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 1:02 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:23 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, DAL 3.2 | TBL 3, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.7, DAL 28.7 | TBL 38, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 52% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.6 | 2 | 1.23 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 6 | 0.87 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 5 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.