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Game Recap
TBL4
DAL1
TBL beat DAL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.95 expected goals to 3.02. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:00DALO. Bäck0.75 xG
- 1st 8:04TBLD. James0.15 xG
- 2nd 11:04TBLB. Hagel0.04 xG
- 2nd 18:50TBLJ. Guentzel0.31 xG
- 3rd 17:59TBLP. HolmbergEN0.47 xG
Team Stats
TBLDAL
26Shots on goal20
3.95Expected goals3.02
57Shot attempts42
225v5 shots on goal13
0/2Power play0/2
21Hits16
14Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways13
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.95 xGDAL 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 4:00 |
| D. James | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:53 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 4:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 2:46 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:06 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:07 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:27 | 3:14 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:46 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:57 | 0:08 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 1:07 |
| O. Bäck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:57 | 3:33 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:34 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 18:33 | 2:51 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:06 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:51 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:02 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:26 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:40 | 0:03 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:05 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 23:48 | 2:51 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 1:09 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:17 | 0:22 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 58:16 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde13:53P. Holmberg13:36Z. Girgensons11:49
Line 2N. Paul13:38J. Finley11:25O. Bjorkstrand11:31
Line 3J. Guentzel12:59G. Goncalves11:20D. James11:14
Line 4N. Kucherov10:14B. Hagel10:35A. Cirelli10:29
Pair 1C. D'Astous20:34E. Cernak16:47
Pair 2D. Raddysh14:12J. Moser14:49
Pair 3M. Crozier16:59D. Carlile12:26
DAL
Line 1M. Rantanen13:02W. Johnston13:29S. Steel13:39
Line 2M. Duchene13:56R. Hintz12:14J. Robertson13:38
Line 3C. Blackwell10:25R. Faksa11:36J. Benn11:17
Line 4M. Bourque10:46J. Hryckowian10:09O. Bäck9:06
Pair 1E. Lindell18:06M. Heiskanen15:50
Pair 2N. Lundkvist16:10T. Harley19:05
Pair 3I. Lyubushkin13:39K. Capobianco12:23
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.2, DAL 2.9 | TBL 4, DAL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.9, DAL 24.4 | TBL 26, DAL 20 |
| Win chance | TBL 54% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 0 | 1.40 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.8 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.5 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 4 | 1.03 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.5 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.