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Game Recap
TBL4
FLA0
TBL beat FLA 4-0, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.92. B. Hagel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Ekblad had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Johansson stopped 36 of 36.
Team Stats
TBLFLA
29Shots on goal36
2.64Expected goals2.92
65Shot attempts78
195v5 shots on goal25
1/3Power play0/4
13Hits32
16Blocked shots20
37Penalty minutes26
14Giveaways16
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.64 xGFLA 2.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:31 | 3:14 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:51 | 2:37 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 15:50 | 1:32 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 2:37 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:57 | 2:01 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 15 | 6:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:37 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 2:22 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:50 | 1:19 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:45 | 2:28 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:08 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:22 | 0:13 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:10 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 36 | 36 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:26 | 7:02 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 6:40 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 19:03 | 4:41 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:45 | 4:22 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:15 | 1:14 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:44 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:29 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:32 | 2:14 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:14 | 3:35 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Asplund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 25:24 | 6:52 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:33 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 10 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:32 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 58:30 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.1, FLA 3.4 | TBL 4, FLA 0 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.8, FLA 31.3 | TBL 29, FLA 36 |
| Win chance | FLA 55% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 3 | 1.08 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 5 | 1.33 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.3 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.73 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.0 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 5 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA R. Asplund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.