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Game Recap
TBL1
FLA2
FLA beat TBL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.03 expected goals to 3.56. A. Barkov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Team Stats
TBLFLA
29Shots on goal29
3.56Expected goals2.03
66Shot attempts62
155v5 shots on goal23
0/7Power play1/3
12Hits38
12Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes14
9Giveaways16
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.56 xGFLA 2.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:13 | 8:41 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 7:36 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:58 | 9:26 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:56 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:40 | 2:20 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 7:56 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:47 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:05 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:01 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:03 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 6:54 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:43 | 3:51 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:05 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:04 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:27 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 58:49 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Barkov | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 2:29 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 2:29 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 2:24 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:29 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:57 | 2:23 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 0:06 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:41 | 0:05 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Driedger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, FLA 3.2 | TBL 1, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.8, FLA 32.8 | TBL 29, FLA 29 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.2 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.1 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 4 | 0.93 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.8 | 5 | 1.26 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 4 | 0.97 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.