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Game Recap
TBL5
FLA1
TBL beat FLA 5-1, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 2.79. FLA outshot TBL 34 to 22. J. Guentzel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Barkov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 2:43FLAM. Tkachuk0.16 xG
- 1st 17:15TBLB. Point0.39 xG
- 2nd 13:17TBLN. Paul0.17 xG
- 3rd 0:21TBLJ. Guentzel0.09 xG
- 3rd 14:19TBLL. Glendening0.15 xG
- 3rd 15:00TBLA. CirelliEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
TBLFLA
22Shots on goal34
3.24Expected goals2.79
49Shot attempts69
135v5 shots on goal24
0/5Power play0/4
34Hits43
23Blocked shots17
20Penalty minutes25
20Giveaways11
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.24 xGFLA 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 23:46 | 6:36 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 21:34 | 6:33 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 5:28 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:59 | 4:39 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 19:24 | 4:50 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 5:49 |
| L. Glendening | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 1:46 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:46 | 1:53 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 3:52 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 1:46 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:09 | 3:46 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:06 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:20 | 5:40 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:03 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:33 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 5:13 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:36 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 1:31 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16:10 | 5:49 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:32 | 1:34 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:46 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:54 | 5:41 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:52 | 5:33 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:04 | 4:01 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:53 | 0:20 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:26 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:12 | 1:19 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:52 | 2:43 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:57 | 6:01 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:41 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 10 | 16:29 | 0:12 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:34 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 59:26 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, FLA 3.1 | TBL 5, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.1, FLA 30.2 | TBL 22, FLA 34 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 1 | 1.16 | 3 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 5 | 0.80 | 3 | 32% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.0 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.5 | 1 | 0.08 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.