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Game Recap
TBL2
FLA4
FLA beat TBL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 1.53. A. Lundell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 9:06FLAA. Lundell0.17 xG
- 2nd 12:21TBLM. Chaffee0.11 xG
- 2nd 12:32TBLE. Cernak0.03 xG
- 3rd 16:13FLAA. Ekblad0.22 xG
- 3rd 16:24FLAS. Jones0.01 xG
- 3rd 18:20FLAC. VerhaegheEN0.70 xG
Team Stats
TBLFLA
20Shots on goal23
1.53Expected goals3.42
48Shot attempts67
185v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/3
28Hits46
20Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes17
12Giveaways11
1Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 1.53 xGFLA 3.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:06 | 3:46 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 3:01 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:32 | 4:59 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:52 | 3:59 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 3:09 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 1:21 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 14:21 | 2:56 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:49 | 2:51 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 1:23 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:16 | 3:08 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:07 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 3:45 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:28 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:02 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 3:47 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 3:48 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 3:52 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:56 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:05 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 2:04 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 3:55 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:56 | 0:07 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:19 | 0:04 |
| S. Jones | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:16 | 4:03 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 1:45 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:34 | 0:09 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 14:58 | 0:06 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:42 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 59:51 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 2.9, FLA 3.1 | TBL 2, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 23.8, FLA 30.4 | TBL 20, FLA 23 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.7 | 1 | 1.21 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 3 | 0.49 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.