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Game Recap
TBL2
NJD3
NJD beat TBL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 2.34. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Palat had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 8:10NJDO. Palat0.05 xG
- 1st 9:57TBLV. Hedman0.01 xG
- 2nd 15:16NJDJ. Hughes0.09 xG
- 3rd 8:05TBLN. Kucherov0.17 xG
- OT 3:19NJDS. NoesenPP0.31 xG
Team Stats
TBLNJD
25Shots on goal26
2.34Expected goals3.40
59Shot attempts61
215v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play1/2
14Hits27
13Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways20
5Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.34 xGNJD 3.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:58 | 5:56 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:46 | 4:51 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:05 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:00 | 5:29 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:21 | 5:01 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:53 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:05 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 1:05 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:01 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:03 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:15 | 3:56 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:10 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:43 | 2:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:10 | 0:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 63:19 | OT loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:53 | 3:02 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 3:02 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:02 |
| O. Palat | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:32 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 3:02 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:33 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:33 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:36 | 0:33 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:58 | 2:03 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:34 | 0:01 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:57 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 63:19 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.2, NJD 3.3 | TBL 2, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 26.1, NJD 30.8 | TBL 25, NJD 26 |
| Win chance | NJD 52% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.8 | 5 | 1.13 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 4 | 1.40 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.5 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.