OTT beat TBL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.05 expected goals to 3.76. TBL outshot OTT 32 to 19. R. Greig led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Kucherov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. L. Ullmark stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 13:45OTTS. Pinto0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:17OTTJ. SandersonPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:00TBLB. Hagel0.38 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.76 xGOTT 2.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:49 | 4:46 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:09 | 5:03 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:06 | 5:05 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:02 | 5:00 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:03 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:57 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:55 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:11 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:48 | 4:04 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:56 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 57:09 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:49 |
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:17 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 18:39 | 3:11 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 3:13 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 1:53 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:50 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:54 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:47 | 2:20 |
| A. Crookshank | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:50 | 2:57 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:57 | 0:01 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:43 | 2:10 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.5, OTT 3.0 | TBL 1, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 28.7, OTT 29.4 | TBL 32, OTT 19 |
| Win chance | TBL 58% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 7 | 1.32 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 3 | 0.96 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 5 | 0.94 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.9 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT A. Crookshank | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.