Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TBL7
PHI2
TBL beat PHI 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.24. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 1:49TBLN. Kucherov0.19 xG
- 1st 4:15PHIG. Hathaway0.06 xG
- 1st 6:05TBLN. Kucherov0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:37TBLN. Paul0.35 xG
- 3rd 2:03TBLG. Goncalves0.31 xG
- 3rd 3:37TBLB. Hagel0.21 xG
- 3rd 4:45PHIO. TippettPP0.02 xG
- 3rd 9:00TBLY. Gourde0.21 xG
- 3rd 11:00TBLG. Goncalves0.17 xG
Team Stats
TBLPHI
23Shots on goal20
3.36Expected goals2.24
50Shot attempts38
225v5 shots on goal14
0/2Power play1/2
18Hits32
6Blocked shots14
9Penalty minutes9
14Giveaways14
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 3.36 xGPHI 2.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 13:35 | 1:58 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:18 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 15:05 | 1:10 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:57 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:10 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:45 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:10 | 1:50 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:42 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:50 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 2:00 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:28 | 1:20 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 21:57 | 2:50 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:10 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:23 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:21 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:22 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:23 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:09 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:09 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:10 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:43 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:26 | 1:11 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 19:55 | 1:49 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde14:50P. Holmberg14:38Z. Girgensons12:03
Line 2J. Guentzel14:27B. Hagel13:50A. Cirelli13:36
Line 3N. Paul14:34O. Bjorkstrand12:04D. James12:11
Line 4N. Kucherov12:24G. Goncalves13:55B. Point11:37
Pair 1D. Raddysh19:07J. Moser19:30
Pair 2C. D'Astous19:08E. Cernak16:26
Pair 3M. Crozier18:04D. Carlile14:56
PHI
Line 1T. Zegras15:42M. Michkov15:47C. Dvorak15:14
Line 2S. Couturier14:26O. Tippett14:24D. Barkey13:20
Line 3N. Cates12:41C. Grundstrom12:33N. Grebenkin14:31
Line 4G. Hathaway10:35R. Abols10:28N. Deslauriers10:28
Pair 1N. Juulsen19:01E. Andrae20:22
Pair 2N. Seeler17:33R. Ristolainen17:17
Pair 3C. York16:44T. Sanheim16:14
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, PHI 2.8 | TBL 7, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.5, PHI 26.2 | TBL 23, PHI 20 |
| Win chance | TBL 58% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.5 | 2 | 1.34 | 4 | 32% | 2 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.3 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.1 | 0 | 0.88 | 3 | 35% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.