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Game Recap
TBL5
PHI1
TBL beat PHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.86 expected goals to 2.82. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Johansson stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:10TBLP. Holmberg0.23 xG
- 2nd 0:33TBLJ. Guentzel0.15 xG
- 2nd 4:29TBLB. PointPP0.29 xG
- 2nd 5:40PHIC. Dvorak0.09 xG
- 2nd 19:29TBLB. HagelPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 16:39TBLN. KucherovEN0.67 xG
Team Stats
TBLPHI
26Shots on goal21
4.86Expected goals2.82
54Shot attempts52
85v5 shots on goal16
2/4Power play0/2
10Hits32
11Blocked shots17
32Penalty minutes46
9Giveaways19
6Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 4.86 xGPHI 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:21 | 4:09 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 4:46 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:43 | 4:46 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:47 | 0:16 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:39 | 4:14 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:16 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:28 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:16 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:47 | 0:23 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:14 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:17 | 4:36 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 19:16 | 0:04 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:16 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:31 | 0:26 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 59:13 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:39 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:37 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:16 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:56 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 14 | 14:21 | 2:26 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:12 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:23 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10:50 | 0:52 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:05 | 2:49 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:56 | 1:11 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:12 | 0:39 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1Y. Gourde14:52P. Holmberg14:43Z. Girgensons13:26
Line 2D. James10:57O. Bjorkstrand9:52N. Paul10:01
Line 3A. Cirelli8:53B. Hagel10:04J. Guentzel9:10
Line 4N. Kucherov9:08G. Goncalves8:43B. Point5:24
Pair 1D. Raddysh14:55J. Moser15:12
Pair 2C. D'Astous15:15E. Cernak15:19
Pair 3D. Carlile13:04M. Crozier10:22
PHI
Line 1C. Dvorak10:03T. Zegras10:44T. Konecny9:43
Line 2S. Couturier11:58O. Tippett10:54D. Barkey12:06
Line 3M. Michkov10:57N. Cates8:55C. Grundstrom10:27
Line 4N. Grebenkin9:11R. Abols11:27G. Hathaway8:55
Pair 1N. Juulsen14:15E. Andrae15:35
Pair 2T. Sanheim13:56C. York14:01
Pair 3N. Seeler13:53R. Ristolainen12:20
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.3, PHI 2.8 | TBL 5, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 24.3, PHI 25.8 | TBL 26, PHI 21 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.3 | 6 | 1.32 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.2 | 1 | 0.93 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 1.9 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.7 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.