Game Recap: TBL 3, PIT 2 (OT), November 19, 2024

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Game Recap

TBL3

Final/OTTue, Nov 19, 2024Every game that night

PIT2

TBL beat PIT 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 1.28. TBL outshot PIT 35 to 19. B. Point led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Puljujarvi had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TBL	0	0	2	1	3
PIT	1	1	0	0	2

1st 12:05PITJ. Puljujarvi0.09 xG
2nd 13:05PITR. RakellPP0.16 xG
3rd 5:41TBLB. Point0.04 xG
3rd 12:49TBLA. Cirelli0.06 xG
OT 3:58TBLB. Point0.05 xG

Team Stats

TBLPIT

35Shots on goal19

3.71Expected goals1.28

85Shot attempts38

255v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play1/2

11Hits15

11Blocked shots22

4Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways23

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.71 xGPIT 1.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL35 on goal, 3 scored

PIT19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	23:43	5:05
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:59	1:20
C. Geekie	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:12	1:40
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	24:51	5:06
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	23:52	5:01
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	22:27	3:47
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	12:58	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	12:44	0:52
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:38	0:55
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	8:42	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:39	0:07
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	7:49	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:07	2:14
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	25:47	3:41
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	21:44	0:12
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:46	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:42	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	11:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	19	17	2	.895	63:58	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	-2	0	20:21	3:03
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	19:30	3:01
J. Puljujarvi	RW	1	0	1	5	2	1	+1	0	10:13	0:23
S. Poulin	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:49	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	19:49	3:11
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:40	3:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	16:56	0:25
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:42	0:26
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:17	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:02	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:10	0:15
V. Ponomarev	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:36	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	24:32	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	17:09	0:24
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	26:15	3:02
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:29	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:39	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	2	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	35	32	3	.914	63:58	OT loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces PIT, his team until Feb 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.4, PIT 3.2	TBL 3, PIT 2
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	TBL 28.9, PIT 31.9	TBL 35, PIT 19
Win chance	TBL 52%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	4	1.64	0	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.2	2	1.12	0	37%	0
PIT S. Crosby	3.2	0	1.16	1	36%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	2	0.75	0	29%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	2	0.70	1	27%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	3	0.99	0	31%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.4	1	0.93	0	29%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.71	0	16%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	3	0.92	1	15%	0
TBL B. Point	2.2	5	0.92	2	35%	2
PIT D. O'Connor	2.0	0	0.43	0	19%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.8	1	0.56	0	20%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.8	2	0.38	0	15%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.8	3	0.58	0	23%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	2	0.71	1	23%	1
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.7	5	0.30	1	12%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.5	2	0.23	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.3	0	0.26	0	14%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.2	0	0.38	1	5%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	1	0.25	1	13%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.38	1	4%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	1	0.29	1	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	1	0.35	1	8%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	3	0.31	2	6%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.0	3	0.33	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	1	0.18	0	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.21	0	11%	0
PIT J. Ivany	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.23	0	3%	0
PIT S. Poulin	0.7	0	0.20	1	9%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.11	0	8%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	0	0.19	0	2%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.6	0	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.