Game Recap: TBL 5, PIT 2, January 12, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL5

FinalSun, Jan 12, 2025Every game that night

PIT2

TBL beat PIT 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 2.76. PIT outshot TBL 33 to 19. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Rakell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Johansson stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	2	3	5
PIT	1	0	1	2

1st 14:20PITR. Rakell0.23 xG
2nd 6:54TBLB. Hagel0.13 xG
2nd 16:04TBLN. Kucherov0.06 xG
3rd 2:17PITK. HayesPP0.00 xG
3rd 16:57TBLN. Kucherov0.18 xG
3rd 18:48TBLA. CirelliEN0.89 xG
3rd 19:39TBLN. PaulEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

TBLPIT

19Shots on goal33

3.57Expected goals2.76

46Shot attempts76

145v5 shots on goal25

0/0Power play1/3

38Hits33

15Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways12

2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 3.57 xGPIT 2.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL18 on goal, 5 scored

PIT33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	2	1	3	3	1	0	+3	0	19:10	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	1	1	2	6	0	4	+2	0	21:29	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+3	2	18:45	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	2	2	4	0	1	+2	0	16:06	0:00
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:43	0:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+3	0	17:27	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	13:42	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:22	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:26	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	6:30	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	22:51	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+2	4	20:25	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	19:04	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+2	0	21:43	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:11	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	1	1	2	6	1	0	-3	0	24:31	4:00
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	6	1	2	-2	0	25:42	4:41
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	4	1	2	-1	0	23:49	4:39
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-3	0	16:02	4:45
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	14:25	0:27
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:02	0:40
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:36	0:47
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	11:24	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:19	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:57	0:00
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	7:40	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	+1	0	23:43	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	24:52	0:25
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	0	19:42	2:21
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:47	2:45
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:47	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	17	14	3	.824	58:42	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces PIT, his team until Feb 20242 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.6, PIT 3.1	TBL 5, PIT 2
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	TBL 29.7, PIT 29.6	TBL 19, PIT 33
Win chance	TBL 57%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	3	1.64	3	36%	2
PIT S. Crosby	3.0	6	1.11	1	33%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.9	4	0.84	1	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	4	1.05	2	37%	0
TBL B. Point	2.6	0	1.20	0	42%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	6	1.04	2	32%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	6	0.72	2	29%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	1	0.71	0	15%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	1	0.83	1	14%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.1	0	0.53	0	13%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.67	2	23%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	1	0.26	0	11%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.6	1	0.51	1	21%	1
PIT C. Glass	1.6	2	0.37	0	14%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.6	1	0.27	0	11%	0
PIT D. O'Connor	1.6	1	0.34	0	15%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	4	0.34	1	14%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	1.5	0	0.42	0	6%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	0	0.38	0	13%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.3	3	0.26	0	12%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.2	0	0.35	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.2	0	0.36	1	4%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.1	0	0.35	1	5%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
PIT P. Joseph	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	2	0.21	0	13%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.0	0	0.28	0	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	1	0.17	0	9%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	0	0.24	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.19	1	2%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0
PIT O. Pickering	0.6	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.