Game Recap: TBL 2, STL 3 (SO), January 16, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TBL2

Final/SOFri, Jan 16, 2026Every game that night

STL3

STL beat TBL 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.18 expected goals to 4.16. TBL outshot STL 36 to 21. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Guentzel had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Hofer stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TBL	0	2	0	0	2
STL	2	0	0	1	3

1st 17:03STLJ. Neighbours0.24 xG
1st 17:33STLN. Bjugstad0.15 xG
2nd 9:59TBLN. KucherovPP0.12 xG
2nd 11:01TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

TBLSTL

36Shots on goal21

4.16Expected goals2.18

74Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal14

2/3Power play0/2

12Hits24

10Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways11

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.16 xGSTL 2.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL36 on goal, 2 scored

STL21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-2	0	23:37	4:58
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	25:43	4:56
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:55	4:44
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	8	0	0	-2	2	22:10	4:55
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:09	0:01
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:56	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:22	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:19	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:05	0:08
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:50	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:43	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:08	0:04
D. Raddysh	D	0	2	2	6	1	3	-1	0	27:01	4:57
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	22:16	0:01
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	21:26	0:07
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:40	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	16:06	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	.905	64:42	OT loss
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:19	2:29
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:15	1:15
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	16:36	2:17
N. Bjugstad	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:46	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	19:55	2:46
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	19:54	2:24
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:25	1:28
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:49	1:37
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:10	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:42	1:36
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	12:25	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	2	11:28	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:01	0:08
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	25:15	2:29
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	23:08	1:31
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	22:54	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	15:58	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	36	34	2	.944	64:58	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1A. Cirelli15:11B. Hagel15:51N. Kucherov16:07

Line 2Y. Gourde14:37P. Holmberg14:08Z. Girgensons12:43

Line 3J. Guentzel13:47N. Paul13:19G. Goncalves11:50

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand8:11D. James7:43J. Finley7:04

Pair 1C. D'Astous19:54E. Cernak16:46

Pair 2D. Raddysh19:08J. Moser18:06

Pair 3M. Crozier14:26D. Carlile12:19

STL

Line 1B. Schenn16:00J. Snuggerud15:17O. Stenberg13:10

Line 2J. Kyrou14:01J. Neighbours13:18D. Dvorsky12:37

Line 3P. Buchnevich12:34J. Berggren10:56N. Bjugstad11:28

Line 4O. Sundqvist10:52A. Toropchenko10:20N. Walker10:08

Pair 1C. Parayko19:03P. Broberg17:29

Pair 2J. Faulk17:22T. Tucker15:00

Pair 3C. Fowler15:39L. Mailloux15:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayGage Goncalves TBL Turns 25 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.3, STL 2.7	TBL 2, STL 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	TBL 26.7, STL 24.1	TBL 36, STL 21
Win chance	TBL 60%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	3	1.41	2	34%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	3	0.91	1	31%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.4	8	0.94	0	35%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	4	0.61	1	27%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.3	6	0.81	2	14%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.0	4	0.46	0	19%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	4	0.39	0	10%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	1	0.60	1	22%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	2	0.53	1	19%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	2	0.52	0	20%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.5	1	0.26	1	14%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.5	0	0.50	0	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.53	1	24%	1
TBL N. Paul	1.5	1	0.39	0	19%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	2	0.32	0	9%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.45	0	15%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	0	0.44	1	8%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	3	0.34	0	7%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.27	0	16%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.3	2	0.41	0	7%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	3	0.27	0	3%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	1	0.35	0	16%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.21	0	12%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	0	0.29	0	7%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.1	1	0.19	0	6%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	0	0.15	0	6%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.27	0	13%	0
STL O. Stenberg	0.9	0	0.41	0	12%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.36	0	13%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TBL D. James	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	2	0.23	0	3%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	0	0.16	0	5%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.7	0	0.20	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.