Game Recap: TBL 0, TOR 2, December 8, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL0

FinalMon, Dec 8, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

TOR beat TBL 2-0, with the chances close: 1.78 expected goals to 2.02. A. Matthews had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.7. D. Hildeby stopped 29 of 29.

Team Stats

TBLTOR

29Shots on goal25

2.02Expected goals1.78

59Shot attempts44

275v5 shots on goal21

0/1Power play0/2

16Hits20

8Blocked shots14

24Penalty minutes22

18Giveaways9

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.02 xGTOR 1.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL29 on goal, 0 scored

TOR24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	24:38	2:00
J. Guentzel	C	4	0	1	-2	2	20:53	2:00
A. Cirelli	C	4	0	1	-1	0	20:51	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	0	0	0	19:02	0:00
B. Point	C	4	1	0	-1	0	18:48	2:00
Y. Gourde	C	1	2	0	-1	0	14:38	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	4	0	-1	0	13:46	0:04
Z. Girgensons	C	2	2	0	0	0	13:03	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	1	1	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	0	9:30	1:56
J. Finley	C	1	1	0	0	2	6:39	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	2	0	0	0	15	5:25	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	2	1	0	-1	0	23:42	2:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	-1	0	21:13	0:00
J. Moser	D	1	0	2	-1	0	21:12	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	3	1	2	0	0	20:18	0:00
V. Hedman	D	1	1	0	-1	0	17:43	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	0	5	14:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	24	23	1	.958	57:45	Loss
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	8	0	3	+1	0	20:07	1:59
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	17:43	1:52
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	16:52	2:09
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	20:17	1:55
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:31	1:51
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:24	2:08
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:21	0:01
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:13	2:04
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:00	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15	9:17	1:05
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	8:11	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	21:20	1:53
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	25:15	0:56
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	23:08	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	2	21:39	2:07
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:15	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	29	29	0	1.000	59:42	Win
A. Akhtyamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov20:06B. Hagel15:54A. Cirelli17:05

Line 2J. Guentzel16:37B. Point14:15N. Paul13:28

Line 3Y. Gourde12:50P. Holmberg12:52Z. Girgensons11:28

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand7:34J. Finley6:39G. Goncalves5:25

Pair 1C. D'Astous19:12E. Lilleberg18:12

Pair 2D. Raddysh18:05J. Moser18:31

Pair 3V. Hedman15:00M. Crozier14:02

TOR

Line 1M. Knies17:32A. Matthews16:46M. Domi15:16

Line 2J. Tavares14:52W. Nylander16:36E. Cowan14:43

Line 3S. Laughton11:35S. Lorentz10:08C. Jarnkrok9:41

Line 4N. Roy10:34B. McMann8:12D. Joshua8:11

Pair 1T. Stecher18:52J. McCabe20:04

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson19:15M. Rielly19:09

Pair 3S. Benoit15:15D. Mermis10:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarren Raddysh TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)2 SOG
Old teamDennis Hildeby TBL First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 202629 saves on 29, the win
Old teamNick Paul TOR First game against TBL since he left (his team until May 2026)0 SOG
Old teamPontus Holmberg TBL Faces TOR, his team until May 20251 SOG
HometownAnthony Cirelli TBL Plays near home (born in Etobicoke)4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, TOR 2.9	TBL 0, TOR 2
Total goals	6.2	2
Shots on goal	TBL 28.9, TOR 26.4	TBL 29, TOR 25
Win chance	TBL 55%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	8	1.02	1	42%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	3.4	2	1.47	0	35%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	4	1.00	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	0	0.87	1	34%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	1	0.87	0	29%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	0	0.99	0	36%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	4	0.84	0	33%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.1	2	0.70	0	12%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	0	0.74	0	26%	0
TBL N. Paul	2.0	0	0.53	0	22%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	2.0	4	0.61	0	23%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.8	2	0.50	1	18%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	0	0.54	0	20%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.8	3	0.38	0	19%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.7	1	0.66	0	12%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	3	0.53	1	10%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.44	0	9%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	1	0.44	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.48	0	14%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	0	0.18	0	3%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.4	0	0.43	0	17%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	2	0.20	0	12%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.31	0	13%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	0	0.18	0	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.27	0	10%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.29	0	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.34	0	7%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	3	0.39	0	8%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.32	0	16%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	2	0.22	0	10%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.28	0	13%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	0	0.26	0	4%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.8	1	0.13	0	5%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.7	2	0.27	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.