Game Recap: TBL 4, UTA 2, November 2, 2025

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Game Recap

TBL4

FinalSun, Nov 2, 2025Every game that night

UTA2

TBL beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.52. J. Guentzel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Yamamoto had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Johansson stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	1	1	2	4
UTA	1	0	1	2

1st 5:55UTAL. Crouse0.20 xG
1st 15:17TBLY. Gourde0.16 xG
2nd 2:47TBLA. Cirelli0.03 xG
3rd 2:21UTAK. Yamamoto0.21 xG
3rd 12:06TBLJ. Guentzel0.13 xG
3rd 19:44TBLB. HagelEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

TBLUTA

26Shots on goal27

2.80Expected goals2.52

48Shot attempts51

205v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/3

16Hits19

14Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes16

14Giveaways15

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 2.80 xGUTA 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL24 on goal, 4 scored

UTA25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	14:56	3:01
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	23:08	2:55
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:33	0:08
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	16:21	0:08
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	2	16:19	0:18
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:19	3:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:52	3:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:08	0:08
D. James	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	11:28	0:19
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:36	0:21
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:54	0:14
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	3:01	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:55	0:05
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:08	3:14
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	19:23	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	21:02	0:08
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+1	2	20:27	0:08
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:30	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	3	3	2	+1	0	12:41	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	2	12:10	1:19
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	20:22	4:08
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	20:01	3:58
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	18:30	4:14
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:11	3:38
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:58	1:49
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	16:43	1:29
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:49	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	2	12:21	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	10	10:26	1:13
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	10:22	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	16:32	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	24:49	4:02
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	21:55	1:25
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	18:43	0:00
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:26	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	13:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	25	22	3	.880	58:47	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde13:47Z. Girgensons14:21P. Holmberg14:00

Line 2N. Kucherov15:17B. Point12:51B. Hagel14:59

Line 3D. James10:38O. Bjorkstrand9:53G. Goncalves9:40

Line 4J. Guentzel11:05A. Cirelli11:52C. Douglas3:01

Pair 1R. McDonagh17:26E. Cernak16:01

Pair 2E. Lilleberg18:10C. D'Astous14:22

Pair 3J. Moser17:01V. Hedman12:26

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:15C. Keller13:38B. Hayton13:23

Line 2D. Guenther12:30L. Cooley12:08J. Peterka13:30

Line 3L. Crouse11:00J. McBain11:55M. Carcone9:13

Line 4K. Stenlund11:15K. Yamamoto10:39B. Tanev10:22

Pair 1I. Cole14:47O. Määttä13:14

Pair 2J. Marino16:28N. Schmidt17:28

Pair 3M. Sergachev15:57D. Simashev16:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMikhail Sergachev UTA Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.1, UTA 3.2	TBL 4, UTA 2
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	TBL 25.2, UTA 29.2	TBL 26, UTA 27
Win chance	UTA 51%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	1	0.82	0	29%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	1	1.38	0	33%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	1	0.96	2	36%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.5	3	0.94	0	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	0	0.83	0	26%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	4	0.89	1	29%	1
TBL B. Point	2.2	3	0.93	0	36%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	1	0.80	0	28%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	3	0.64	0	23%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.0	1	0.73	1	14%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.68	1	25%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	2	0.62	0	13%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	0	0.43	0	17%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	3	0.32	1	18%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	0	0.52	0	19%	0
TBL D. James	1.5	2	0.23	0	12%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	2	0.32	0	16%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.4	0	0.10	0	4%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	3	0.31	0	8%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	4	0.42	1	14%	1
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	0	0.30	0	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.30	0	13%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	4	0.30	1	13%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	1	0.17	1	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	2	0.35	1	5%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	0.9	0	0.27	0	10%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	3	0.24	0	6%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	2	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	2	0.31	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	1	0.35	0	11%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.18	2	3%	0
UTA O. Määttä	0.6	2	0.15	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	0	0.16	1	2%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	0	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.