Game Recap: TBL 4, VAN 2, December 8, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TBL4

FinalSun, Dec 8, 2024Every game that night

VAN2

TBL beat VAN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.66 expected goals to 2.73. TBL outshot VAN 33 to 25. B. Point led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. DeBrusk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	0	2	2	4
VAN	1	0	1	2

1st 16:08VANQ. Hughes0.04 xG
2nd 4:40TBLN. Kucherov0.07 xG
2nd 6:29TBLB. PointPP0.06 xG
3rd 4:52VANK. Sherwood0.18 xG
3rd 16:04TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.25 xG
3rd 19:42TBLB. PointEN0.87 xG

Team Stats

TBLVAN

33Shots on goal25

4.66Expected goals2.73

61Shot attempts48

195v5 shots on goal20

2/4Power play0/3

9Hits28

11Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes6

23Giveaways10

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TBL 4.66 xGVAN 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TBL31 on goal, 4 scored

VAN24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	2	2	4	3	0	0	+1	0	22:07	7:06
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	4	0	1	+1	0	22:43	7:16
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	-1	0	23:15	7:13
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	5	4	0	+1	4	23:39	7:11
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:59	0:03
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:01	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:58	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:40	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:44	0:10
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	7:00	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4:37	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	24:24	6:09
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	19:19	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	21:52	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	18:41	0:49
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:20	0:23
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	25	23	2	.920	59:50	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	19:39	2:20
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	4	7	0	+1	0	14:54	2:13
A. Räty	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	9:22	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	20:26	3:53
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:15	3:24
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	5	0	2	-2	0	19:03	2:41
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	17:47	3:29
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	15:33	0:14
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	13:02	3:06
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:42	0:16
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:26	0:03
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+2	0	23:12	1:58
Q. Hughes	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:18	1:37
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:31	1:19
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	18:28	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	15:39	0:17
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	14:41	3:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	32	29	3	.906	58:12	Loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayThatcher Demko VAN Turns 29 that day0 saves on 0
HometownGage Goncalves TBL Plays near home (born in Mission)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TBL 3.2, VAN 3.2	TBL 4, VAN 2
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	TBL 27.6, VAN 27.2	TBL 33, VAN 25
Win chance	TBL 50%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	4	1.43	3	32%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	4	0.99	1	34%	1
VAN C. Garland	2.7	2	0.86	0	28%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.5	4	1.07	1	14%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	5	1.01	0	31%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	5	0.76	0	31%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	3	1.01	4	37%	2
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	0	1.03	0	32%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	1	0.82	0	30%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.9	2	0.73	1	14%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.9	1	0.53	1	23%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	4	0.52	1	20%	1
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.8	2	0.26	0	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.66	0	22%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	2	0.50	0	20%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.3	1	0.37	0	15%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	0	0.42	0	17%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	0	0.40	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	1	0.29	1	4%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.1	1	0.24	0	8%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	1	0.30	0	15%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.0	2	0.33	0	15%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.45	0	19%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	3	0.29	1	4%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.8	2	0.26	0	7%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.7	0	0.20	1	11%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	8%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.6	2	0.29	0	9%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.