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Game Recap
TBL1
WPG4
WPG beat TBL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.32 expected goals to 2.58. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| WPG | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 15:31WPGM. Barron0.27 xG
- 2nd 19:42WPGM. Scheifele0.08 xG
- 3rd 1:52TBLB. PointPP0.33 xG
- 3rd 5:34WPGG. Nyquist0.20 xG
- 3rd 17:59WPGK. ConnorEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
TBLWPG
27Shots on goal30
2.58Expected goals4.32
59Shot attempts63
205v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play0/2
23Hits26
17Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways17
1Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.58 xGWPG 4.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:45 | 2:00 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:25 | 2:00 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 18:17 | 0:07 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:07 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:07 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 23:04 | 2:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:07 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:07 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 58:54 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:17 | 2:15 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:15 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:39 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:45 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:45 |
| M. Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 2:15 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 2:15 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:45 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:58 | 1:40 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:06 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:54 | 0:05 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| V. Heinola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 2:15 |
| I. Phillips | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 59:47 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov17:22B. Point15:06J. Guentzel16:07
Line 2Z. Girgensons13:21P. Holmberg14:18Y. Gourde17:18
Line 3A. Cirelli14:22B. Hagel16:03O. Bjorkstrand13:25
Line 4C. Geekie10:21S. Sabourin9:03
Pair 1D. Raddysh19:58J. Moser14:26
Pair 2R. McDonagh11:57E. Cernak15:27
Pair 3V. Hedman12:24D. Carlile17:58
WPG
Line 1K. Connor18:42M. Scheifele18:17A. Iafallo15:49
Line 2C. Perfetti12:45G. Vilardi14:03A. Lowry12:38
Line 3J. Toews13:05G. Nyquist11:41W. Duehr10:23
Line 4M. Barron9:37C. Koepke8:30T. Pearson12:03
Pair 1D. DeMelo20:16D. Samberg20:24
Pair 2H. Fleury21:34E. Salomonsson19:24
Pair 3V. Heinola11:36I. Phillips12:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.2, WPG 2.9 | TBL 1, WPG 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 27.5, WPG 26.4 | TBL 27, WPG 30 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.4 | 4 | 1.11 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 1 | 1.55 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.8 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.7 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 5 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.3 | 4 | 1.10 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG E. Salomonsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.5 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WPG V. Heinola | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG I. Phillips | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.7 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.