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Game Recap
TBL2
WSH3
WSH beat TBL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 2.15. WSH outshot TBL 28 to 19. T. Wilson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Thompson stopped 17 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 7:06TBLJ. Guentzel0.13 xG
- 2nd 17:38WSHA. Protas0.11 xG
- 3rd 1:23TBLB. PointPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:56WSHT. WilsonPP0.11 xG
- OT 1:19WSHJ. Chychrun0.22 xG
Team Stats
TBLWSH
19Shots on goal28
2.15Expected goals3.07
37Shot attempts64
175v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play1/3
8Hits23
17Blocked shots8
10Penalty minutes8
19Giveaways14
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TBL 2.15 xGWSH 3.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:05 | 3:26 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 3:21 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 3:25 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:40 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:28 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 3:07 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:31 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:04 | 0:32 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:52 | 0:08 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:41 | 0:45 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:04 | 3:22 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 61:01 | OT loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:21 | 4:17 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 4:40 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:41 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:03 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:33 | 5:18 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:01 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 4:17 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:35 | 0:01 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:10 | 4:38 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:40 | 1:06 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:43 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 61:19 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov16:06B. Point15:41B. Hagel13:56
Line 2Y. Gourde14:23P. Holmberg14:51O. Bjorkstrand13:42
Line 3J. Guentzel14:21A. Cirelli13:21G. Goncalves12:20
Line 4M. Chaffee7:32C. Geekie7:44C. Douglas7:05
Pair 1R. McDonagh19:55E. Cernak20:26
Pair 3E. Lilleberg15:49M. Crozier4:22
WSH
Line 1D. Strome15:51A. Beauvillier16:42A. Ovechkin12:58
Line 2T. Wilson14:12A. Protas14:55C. McMichael12:22
Line 3N. Dowd13:55B. Duhaime12:03J. Sourdif12:38
Line 4R. Leonard10:34H. Lapierre8:16S. Milano6:34
Pair 1J. Chychrun19:13T. Riemsdyk14:59
Pair 3J. Carlson17:55M. Fehérváry15:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TBL 3.0, WSH 3.2 | TBL 2, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | TBL 25.3, WSH 27.1 | TBL 19, WSH 28 |
| Win chance | WSH 54% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 2 | 1.26 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.73 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.1 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Crozier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.