Game Recap: TOR 3, BOS 4 (OT), October 26, 2024

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Game Recap

TOR3

Final/OTSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

BOS4

BOS beat TOR 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 3.08. BOS outshot TOR 34 to 23. M. Marner led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). H. Lindholm had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Swayman stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	0	2	1	0	3
BOS	0	3	0	1	4

2nd 0:35TORM. Knies0.20 xG
2nd 2:57BOSD. PastrnakPP0.12 xG
2nd 7:44TORM. Rielly0.11 xG
2nd 12:38BOSJ. Brazeau0.47 xG
2nd 13:14BOSM. Kastelic0.36 xG
3rd 18:43TORA. Matthews0.20 xG
OT 2:26BOSB. Marchand0.76 xG

Team Stats

TORBOS

23Shots on goal34

3.08Expected goals4.04

59Shot attempts64

155v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play1/5

27Hits20

18Blocked shots19

12Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways11

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.08 xGBOS 4.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR23 on goal, 3 scored

BOS33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	3	3	4	2	0	+2	0	26:12	4:07
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	3	1	3	+2	0	23:36	3:53
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	19:03	1:29
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	14:52	4:00
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	18:00	3:57
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	17:01	2:17
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:48	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	11:00	0:33
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	9:51	1:23
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	8:14	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	7:19	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	24:14	3:27
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	0	0	6	+1	0	21:07	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	2	24:48	1:01
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	19:28	1:18
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:31	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	34	30	4	.882	61:49	OT loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	4	1	1	0	0	21:48	5:34
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	2	4	1	1	-1	0	19:43	5:44
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:16	5:26
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	14:00	2:40
T. Frederic	C	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	2	13:15	0:29
J. Beecher	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	2	12:07	0:02
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	1	6	2	+1	0	12:00	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	11:24	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	9:54	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:37	5:01
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	18:18	2:56
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	9:53	2:11
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	26:18	5:39
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	22:54	2:48
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	17:58	2:47
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	17:39	0:04
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	17:27	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:47	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	23	20	3	.870	62:26	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.1, BOS 3.1	TOR 3, BOS 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	TOR 31.8, BOS 27.7	TOR 23, BOS 34
Win chance	TOR 51%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.3	3	1.00	2	41%	1
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	4	1.15	2	43%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	2	0.86	0	31%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	1	0.67	1	25%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.2	4	0.83	2	27%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.2	4	0.97	3	26%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	0	0.40	0	19%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	1	0.73	1	23%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	2	0.67	0	25%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	4	0.57	1	8%	1
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	1	0.36	0	16%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	2	0.45	1	18%	1
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.8	4	0.41	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	0	0.36	0	7%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	0	0.52	0	13%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.6	2	0.44	1	19%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.57	0	20%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	1	0.56	0	10%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	1	0.44	0	17%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	4	0.38	0	6%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.33	0	10%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.3	3	0.35	1	16%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	1	0.31	1	14%	1
BOS C. Koepke	1.3	2	0.35	1	13%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.18	0	9%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	3	0.34	0	7%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.21	0	6%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	3	0.40	1	13%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	1	0.21	0	8%	0
BOS J. Beecher	1.0	1	0.30	1	15%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.09	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.18	1	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.13	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.