Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
TOR3
FinalTue, Nov 11, 2025Every game that night
BOS5

BOS beat TOR 5-3, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 3.66. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). W. Nylander had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Swayman stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TOR1113
BOS3115
  1. 1st 4:27BOSP. ZachaPP0.10 xG
  2. 1st 6:41TORS. LorentzSH0.01 xG
  3. 1st 9:32BOSH. LindholmPP0.03 xG
  4. 1st 17:23BOSA. Steeves0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 0:49BOSD. Pastrnak0.23 xG
  6. 2nd 18:58TORB. McMannPP0.09 xG
  7. 3rd 3:32TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.03 xG
  8. 3rd 9:48BOSD. PastrnakPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

TORBOS
33Shots on goal32
3.66Expected goals3.77
63Shot attempts72
195v5 shots on goal19
1/5Power play3/6
30Hits20
15Blocked shots11
16Penalty minutes12
12Giveaways7
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.66 xGBOS 3.77 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdBOS goal, 4:27TOR goal, 6:41BOS goal, 9:32BOS goal, 17:23BOS goal, 0:49TOR goal, 18:58TOR goal, 3:32BOS goal, 9:48

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR33 on goal, 3 scored
BOS32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. NylanderRW0118000021:326:22
M. DomiC011101+1416:193:40
B. McMannC101232-1213:480:35
N. RobertsonLW0111010012:401:32
S. LorentzC101230+1011:490:01
M. KniesLW0007300022:116:22
J. TavaresC000220-1020:416:18
N. RoyC0002000016:351:21
M. MaccelliLW0001100012:222:48
D. JoshuaC000020-1211:260:06
A. MatthewsC0000100010:511:37
S. BlaisLW000250028:340:27
M. RiellyD0110200022:292:39
O. Ekman-LarssonD101313+1021:225:09
J. McCabeD000014-2221:190:07
B. CarloD0000230020:480:00
S. BenoitD000140+1215:480:01
P. MyersD0001010210:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Stolarz1183.72720:00
D. Hildeby21192.90537:20Loss

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW2134100223:457:21
M. GeekieC0114120020:216:16
P. ZachaC101301-1019:166:24
M. KastelicC011120-1414:091:19
T. JeannotLW011322-1013:030:45
A. SteevesC1012510011:012:03
M. EyssimontC0110100010:082:01
V. ArvidssonLW0004000015:196:19
M. KhusnutdinovC0002010214:591:22
S. KuralyC0002100013:330:00
F. MintenC000020+2013:040:35
J. VielLW000010027:390:00
C. McAvoyD0222020026:116:13
H. LindholmD1122010021:342:49
M. LohreiD0110000014:351:39
N. ZadorovD000230+1219:440:00
A. PeekeD0000010019:410:00
H. JokiharjuD0001100011:060:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman33303.90959:53Win
J. Korpisalo000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares11:20W. Nylander11:53B. McMann10:07
Line 2D. Joshua9:06N. Roy9:39M. Maccelli8:34
Line 3M. Knies10:05A. Matthews7:40N. Robertson10:37
Line 4S. Blais8:07S. Lorentz7:07M. Domi9:58
Pair 1J. McCabe13:52S. Benoit12:16
Pair 2M. Rielly16:46B. Carlo14:24
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson11:36P. Myers6:53

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak12:37M. Geekie11:51M. Khusnutdinov10:57
Line 2T. Jeannot9:22M. Kastelic9:29F. Minten9:01
Line 3V. Arvidsson8:11A. Steeves8:50P. Zacha8:44
Line 4S. Kuraly9:07M. Eyssimont8:07J. Viel7:37
Pair 1H. Lindholm13:48A. Peeke14:14
Pair 2N. Zadorov12:49C. McAvoy12:22
Pair 3H. Jokiharju10:48M. Lohrei12:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamFraser Minten BOS Faces TOR, his team until Jan 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 3.2, BOS 3.1TOR 3, BOS 5
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalTOR 27.1, BOS 28.3TOR 33, BOS 32
Win chanceBOS 50%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews4.001.17044%0
BOS D. Pastrnak3.741.26341%2
TOR W. Nylander2.881.13137%0
TOR J. Tavares2.720.90032%0
BOS V. Arvidsson2.540.61023%0
TOR M. Knies2.270.85028%0
BOS M. Geekie2.140.77129%0
BOS M. Eyssimont2.000.29112%0
TOR N. Robertson1.910.46121%0
TOR B. McMann1.820.39119%1
BOS C. McAvoy1.820.67213%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.520.4328%1
TOR M. Rielly1.500.5919%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.510.31114%0
BOS P. Zacha1.530.65119%1
BOS S. Kuraly1.520.30013%0
BOS F. Minten1.400.32015%0
TOR M. Maccelli1.310.46014%0
TOR N. Roy1.320.44016%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.330.4217%1
TOR M. Domi1.310.41112%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.320.33010%0
TOR P. Myers1.210.1404%0
BOS A. Peeke1.200.2504%0
BOS T. Jeannot1.230.29113%0
TOR B. Carlo1.100.1604%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.100.3917%0
TOR D. Joshua1.000.34015%0
BOS A. Steeves1.020.24110%1
BOS J. Viel1.000.1509%0
BOS H. Jokiharju1.010.2405%0
TOR J. McCabe1.000.3706%0
TOR S. Lorentz1.020.2319%1
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.920.27011%0
TOR S. Blais0.720.2307%0
TOR S. Benoit0.710.1202%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.