Game Recap: TOR 4, BOS 2, March 24, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TOR4

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

BOS2

TOR beat BOS 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.29 expected goals to 2.84. TOR outshot BOS 35 to 20. J. Tavares led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Joshua had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Stolarz stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	2	2	4
BOS	1	0	1	2

1st 5:04BOSE. Lindholm0.12 xG
2nd 7:27TORM. KniesSH0.21 xG
2nd 18:08TORM. DomiPP0.24 xG
3rd 3:00TORW. Nylander0.05 xG
3rd 5:08BOSC. McAvoyPP0.12 xG
3rd 19:38TORM. KniesEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

TORBOS

35Shots on goal20

6.29Expected goals2.84

56Shot attempts49

205v5 shots on goal13

2/4Power play1/5

22Hits16

8Blocked shots6

17Penalty minutes16

12Giveaways27

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 6.29 xGBOS 2.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR33 on goal, 4 scored

BOS20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	19:30	3:51
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	6	0	1	0	0	21:53	3:47
M. Knies	LW	2	0	2	4	2	0	+1	2	18:21	3:20
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:29	3:24
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	17:45	3:01
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:43	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:29	3:24
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	7	12:58	3:19
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:45	3:10
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:27	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:13	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	5:00	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	23:10	0:54
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:20	3:31
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	18:46	3:34
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	18:20	0:10
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	17:01	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	20	18	2	.900	59:51	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	22:02	6:11
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	20:00	5:57
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:34	5:20
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:37	5:42
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:09	3:11
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:29	2:20
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:27	3:31
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	14:26	2:51
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:46	0:10
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:31	0:10
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:41	0:10
C. McAvoy	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	0	26:40	5:58
H. Jokiharju	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	16:10	0:10
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:27	1:20
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:40	1:49
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	10	15:05	0:10
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	34	31	3	.912	59:02	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares14:12W. Nylander16:22E. Cowan14:35

Line 2M. Domi11:06N. Robertson10:06M. Knies11:07

Line 3B. Groulx10:32M. Maccelli8:26D. Joshua9:39

Line 4S. Lorentz6:40J. Quillan5:51M. Pezzetta5:00

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson15:53J. McCabe15:51

Pair 2T. Stecher14:09S. Benoit13:30

Pair 3M. Rielly12:54B. Carlo11:17

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm12:11M. Geekie13:31L. Reichel13:03

Line 2V. Arvidsson10:56C. Mittelstadt11:03P. Zacha9:44

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov9:24F. Minten13:06D. Pastrnak13:19

Line 4S. Kuraly6:27M. Kastelic5:42T. Jeannot5:36

Pair 1H. Jokiharju13:50N. Zadorov13:45

Pair 2C. McAvoy15:04J. Aspirot12:49

Pair 3H. Lindholm13:59M. Lohrei13:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFraser Minten BOS Faces TOR, his team until Jan 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.0, BOS 3.5	TOR 4, BOS 2
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	TOR 27.4, BOS 32.2	TOR 35, BOS 20
Win chance	BOS 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.9	3	1.42	1	42%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	6	1.08	2	37%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.8	1	0.70	0	24%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	2	0.82	3	32%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	4	0.77	1	29%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	4	0.77	2	26%	2
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	2	0.70	1	23%	1
BOS F. Minten	1.9	1	0.55	0	22%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.9	1	0.73	1	14%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	1	0.70	1	21%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.38	0	17%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	0	0.42	0	16%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	1	0.52	0	16%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	1	0.38	0	8%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	2	0.50	1	10%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	3	0.49	0	9%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	2	0.45	1	13%	1
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.4	0	0.60	0	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	3	0.29	0	8%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.3	0	0.24	0	10%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.3	2	0.43	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.2	0	0.43	0	16%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.1	0	0.25	1	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	2	0.16	0	3%	0
TOR B. Groulx	1.1	1	0.20	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.34	1	6%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
BOS L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.30	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	2	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	5	0.29	0	14%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.9	1	0.26	0	7%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	2	0.11	0	2%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	1	0.10	0	7%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.5	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.