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Game Recap
TOR6
FinalTue, Feb 21, 2023Every game that night
BUF3

TOR beat BUF 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.67 expected goals to 2.54. M. Marner led the way with 5 points (0 G, 5 A). I. Samsonov stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TOR4116
BUF0033
  1. 1st 3:51TORR. O'Reilly0.14 xG
  2. 1st 4:28TORR. O'Reilly0.18 xG
  3. 1st 7:14TORJ. Tavares0.12 xG
  4. 1st 12:09TORM. Bunting0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 14:36TORW. NylanderPP0.13 xG
  6. 3rd 5:12BUFJ. Quinn0.07 xG
  7. 3rd 8:01BUFA. Tuch0.04 xG
  8. 3rd 16:29BUFJ. Skinner0.03 xG
  9. 3rd 18:50TORR. O'ReillyEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

TORBUF
29Shots on goal32
4.67Expected goals2.54
40Shot attempts56
245v5 shots on goal31
1/2Power play0/1
16Hits17
18Blocked shots7
4Penalty minutes6
1Giveaways8
15Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.67 xGBUF 2.54 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdTOR goal, 3:51TOR goal, 4:28TOR goal, 7:14TOR goal, 12:09TOR goal, 14:36BUF goal, 5:12BUF goal, 8:01BUF goal, 16:29TOR goal, 18:50

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR28 on goal, 6 scored
BUF32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarnerRW055001+4016:481:36
R. O'ReillyC314500+3016:380:54
J. TavaresC134300+4015:141:32
W. NylanderRW1127010015:531:34
M. BuntingLW1011000213:510:25
A. MatthewsC0001150015:541:35
P. EngvallLW000000-2015:530:26
D. KampfC000310-1015:360:00
C. JarnkrokC0001100014:480:49
A. KerfootC0003120014:200:00
N. AcciariC000070-1013:190:00
Z. Aston-ReeseLW000110-1010:440:00
M. RiellyD011000+1021:341:57
J. HollD000033+1021:100:00
T. BrodieD0003020021:020:00
T. LiljegrenD000012+1020:320:50
M. GiordanoD000102+1019:530:00
C. TimminsD0000000214:510:27
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Samsonov32293.90660:00Win
J. Woll000–0:00

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TuchRW112231-2018:280:48
T. ThompsonC011310-1018:011:23
J. SkinnerLW101300-2016:270:49
C. MittelstadtC011100+1016:030:37
J. QuinnRW1014300013:290:00
K. OkposoRW000130-1015:101:12
P. KrebsC000011-2015:081:11
T. JostC000010-2214:400:00
D. CozensC000300+2014:320:49
Z. GirgensonsC0003100013:550:00
V. OlofssonLW0001000013:451:11
J. PeterkaRW0001000011:440:00
R. DahlinD0113130026:041:25
H. JokiharjuD011310-1223:220:00
O. PowerD000200-1023:510:35
M. SamuelssonD000110-2017:410:00
I. LyubushkinD0001110014:320:00
J. BrysonD0000010212:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
U. Luukkonen1064.60012:09Loss
C. Anderson18171.94446:29