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Game Recap
TOR4
BUF0
TOR beat BUF 4-0, with the chances close: 4.20 expected goals to 3.64. A. Matthews led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. McMann had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Stolarz stopped 35 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 14:15TORS. Lorentz0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:39TORM. Marner0.17 xG
- 3rd 18:08TORA. MatthewsEN0.95 xG
- 3rd 18:43TORN. Robertson0.25 xG
Team Stats
TORBUF
32Shots on goal35
4.20Expected goals3.64
60Shot attempts69
285v5 shots on goal26
0/2Power play0/2
17Hits13
19Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways18
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 4.20 xGBUF 3.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:37 | 2:59 |
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:57 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 2:55 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:47 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:36 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:38 | 0:40 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:22 | 2:59 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:48 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:36 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:38 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Mermis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 35 | 35 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:26 | 2:44 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:36 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:04 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 2:33 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:02 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 2:31 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:58 | 0:51 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:59 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:41 | 2:30 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:05 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:03 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.5, BUF 3.3 | TOR 4, BUF 0 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 27.5, BUF 29.4 | TOR 32, BUF 35 |
| Win chance | TOR 52% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.8 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 44% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.8 | 3 | 0.98 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.2 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.1 | 1 | 1.23 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR D. Mermis | 0.8 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.