Game Recap: TOR 3, BUF 5, October 24, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalFri, Oct 24, 2025Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat TOR 5-3, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.84. M. Samuelsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). O. Ekman-Larsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Lyon stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	0	1	3
BUF	2	2	1	5

1st 4:38BUFM. Samuelsson0.11 xG
1st 5:01TORW. Nylander0.15 xG
1st 6:12BUFJ.Kulich0.17 xG
1st 12:45TORA. MatthewsPP0.11 xG
2nd 7:20BUFT. Thompson0.15 xG
2nd 13:10BUFM. Samuelsson0.13 xG
3rd 1:55TORD. Joshua0.39 xG
3rd 16:59BUFA. TuchSH0.24 xG

Team Stats

TORBUF

34Shots on goal30

2.84Expected goals2.90

65Shot attempts59

235v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play0/2

30Hits8

13Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways13

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.84 xGBUF 2.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR31 on goal, 3 scored

BUF30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0	23:48	4:38
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-2	0	19:16	4:22
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:39	2:28
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	15:11	0:24
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	12:36	0:12
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:05	0:56
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	4	2	-2	0	19:03	4:08
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:09	1:10
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:40	2:14
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	14:16	1:06
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	10:49	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	2	10:16	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	25:50	4:26
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	21:31	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	2	6	0	0	20:32	0:52
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	16:53	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-3	0	14:05	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	30	25	5	.833	57:09	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	2	1	4	+2	0	19:34	1:45
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	5	0	2	+3	2	19:06	1:56
J.Kulich	C	1	1	2	1	0	2	+3	0	16:50	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	20:25	2:00
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	20:03	0:03
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	13:43	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:55	0:07
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:47	1:55
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:28	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	3	4	2	-1	0	12:14	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	11:57	0:05
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1:49	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	2	0	2	3	0	4	+4	0	23:38	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	21:25	0:21
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	4	20:28	1:42
O. Power	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	20:02	0:21
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:37	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1B. McMann15:53A. Matthews16:29W. Nylander15:11

Line 2J. Tavares13:01M. Knies13:01M. Maccelli11:58

Line 3D. Joshua12:00N. Roy12:01E. Cowan9:31

Line 4C. Jarnkrok10:13S. Lorentz10:28M. Domi11:10

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson19:22B. Carlo20:30

Pair 2J. McCabe17:18S. Benoit16:09

Pair 3P. Myers13:43D. Mermis13:12

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson15:44Z. Benson16:04J.Kulich15:29

Line 2R. McLeod15:28J. Doan11:52A. Tuch13:35

Line 3J. Zucker10:52J. Quinn14:11N. Ostlund12:28

Line 4B. Malenstyn10:52P. Krebs11:55T. Kozak1:49

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:29R. Dahlin18:29

Pair 2C. Timmins18:19O. Power17:15

Pair 3B. Byram18:38Z. Metsa9:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.4, BUF 3.3	TOR 3, BUF 5
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	TOR 27.3, BUF 29.6	TOR 34, BUF 30
Win chance	TOR 51%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	4	1.20	1	45%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	5	0.94	2	39%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	2	1.09	1	37%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	0	0.83	1	18%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	3	0.87	1	32%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	2	0.81	2	30%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	1	0.45	2	22%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.2	3	0.81	0	29%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	3	0.55	0	19%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	3	0.57	1	17%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	0	0.45	0	21%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	2	0.54	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.42	1	7%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	2	0.51	0	18%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	1	0.61	1	20%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.46	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	4	0.48	0	14%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.3	3	0.18	0	6%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	4	0.39	2	8%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.46	1	11%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.2	2	0.33	0	6%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	2	0.38	1	15%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	1	0.16	1	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.31	1	10%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	1	0.32	0	14%	0
TOR D. Mermis	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.35	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	3	0.16	0	7%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	3	0.22	2	4%	2
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	2	0.31	1	15%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	0.8	0	0.15	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.27	0	14%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.