Game Recap: TOR 2, BUF 3 (SO), March 14, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR2

Final/SOSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

BUF beat TOR 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.29 expected goals to 2.22. BUF outshot TOR 33 to 18. A. Lyon stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
TOR	1	1	0	0	2
BUF	1	1	0	1	3

1st 2:01BUFO. Power0.10 xG
1st 6:09TORD. Joshua0.20 xG
2nd 0:53TORM. Domi0.12 xG
2nd 11:21BUFJ. QuinnPP0.08 xG

Team Stats

TORBUF

18Shots on goal33

2.22Expected goals4.29

37Shot attempts81

165v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play1/4

35Hits21

22Blocked shots9

19Penalty minutes15

19Giveaways13

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.22 xGBUF 4.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR17 on goal, 2 scored

BUF33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:18	2:44
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	2	20:09	2:24
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:47	1:16
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:35	1:35
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	1	6	0	+1	5	11:58	1:22
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	19:50	2:38
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	19:25	2:38
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	+1	0	19:08	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:07	1:22
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:38	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	4	6:29	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	26:19	0:50
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	6	21:59	1:26
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:33	1:45
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:18	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	5	+1	0	17:05	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	33	31	2	.939	65:00	OT loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:56	2:29
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	15:46	1:39
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:43	0:11
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	13:42	1:25
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:34	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	21:19	5:51
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	20:52	1:25
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:13	5:01
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:02	5:54
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:24	5:52
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	11:27	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	11:13	0:00
O. Power	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	23:50	0:08
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	2	26:12	5:57
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	25:35	1:38
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:49	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:32	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	9	11:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	18	16	2	.889	65:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares15:21W. Nylander15:30M. Maccelli14:27

Line 2M. Domi13:21E. Cowan13:18M. Knies13:55

Line 3B. Groulx15:22N. Robertson13:00D. Joshua9:41

Line 4M. Pezzetta6:29J. Quillan5:49C. Jarnkrok6:43

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson18:14J. McCabe19:34

Pair 2P. Myers13:07S. Benoit13:38

Pair 3M. Rielly15:41B. Carlo15:15

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch13:50T. Thompson13:22Z. Benson13:04

Line 2N. Ostlund13:22J. Norris12:06J. Doan12:15

Line 3J. Zucker10:32R. McLeod10:53J. Quinn11:49

Line 4S. Carrick10:24B. Malenstyn9:57P. Krebs11:13

Pair 1B. Byram19:58O. Power19:50

Pair 2R. Dahlin17:12Z. Metsa14:51

Pair 3L. Schenn9:47L. Stanley14:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, BUF 3.8	TOR 2, BUF 3
Total goals	7.1	5
Shots on goal	TOR 27.6, BUF 32.5	TOR 18, BUF 33
Win chance	BUF 58%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.7	4	1.10	0	41%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	2	1.06	1	37%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	3	0.91	0	20%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	0	0.82	0	33%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	5	0.87	0	31%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.3	3	0.67	0	24%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	1	0.72	0	26%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.2	2	0.64	1	20%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.0	0	0.73	1	26%	0
BUF O. Power	1.8	1	0.46	1	9%	1
BUF J. Norris	1.7	2	0.70	0	28%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.39	1	19%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	1	0.45	1	13%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	1	0.50	0	10%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	1	0.41	0	16%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.5	2	0.51	0	17%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.5	1	0.38	0	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	1	0.46	0	9%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	2	0.72	1	20%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.53	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.46	1	14%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	0	0.47	1	17%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	3	0.40	0	11%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	2	0.12	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.32	0	5%	0
BUF S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.21	1	9%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	0	0.25	0	13%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.29	1	15%	1
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.18	0	7%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.9	2	0.13	0	8%	0
BUF L. Schenn	0.8	2	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	2	0.11	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.10	0	2%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	1	0.14	0	5%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.5	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.