Game Recap: TOR 3, CAR 6, January 9, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalThu, Jan 9, 2025Every game that night

CAR6

CAR beat TOR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.17 expected goals to 3.13. J. Staal scored three for CAR. E. Robinson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. P. Kochetkov stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	1	0	3
CAR	2	2	2	6

1st 1:59TORN. Robertson0.17 xG
1st 7:29TORW. Nylander0.19 xG
1st 13:58CARE. Robinson0.08 xG
1st 14:15CARJ. Staal0.16 xG
2nd 0:35CARJ. StaalSH0.20 xG
2nd 1:11TORA. MatthewsPP0.64 xG
2nd 4:58CARJ. Blake0.12 xG
3rd 0:20CARJ. Staal0.06 xG
3rd 16:23CARS. JarvisEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

TORCAR

33Shots on goal34

3.13Expected goals5.17

61Shot attempts84

295v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play0/3

26Hits13

22Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways14

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.13 xGCAR 5.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR33 on goal, 3 scored

CAR33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-6	0	19:29	2:48
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	18:20	2:38
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-6	2	15:32	2:40
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	-5	0	15:05	1:54
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:14
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:34	0:12
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	12:04	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	18:59	2:39
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	2	16:56	0:58
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:19	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	12:27	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	9:36	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-2	0	20:51	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	20:16	0:13
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	19:58	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	2	18:43	0:04
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	5	4	+1	0	17:44	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	33	28	5	.848	59:45	Loss
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Staal	C	3	0	3	4	3	1	+3	0	13:01	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	3	3	0	2	1	+3	0	12:22	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:20	4:11
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:58	4:28
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	15:13	4:17
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:44	1:49
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0	12:59	0:00
J. Jaaska	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:52	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	20:58	4:15
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:35	1:43
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:24	1:32
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	12:22	1:45
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+3	2	23:06	3:52
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	21:20	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+4	0	21:12	0:00
T. Smith	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	20:33	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	15:14	2:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	33	30	3	.909	59:37	Win
D. Tokarski	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJack Roslovic TOR Faces CAR, his team until May 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, CAR 3.4	TOR 3, CAR 6
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	TOR 25.3, CAR 33.5	TOR 33, CAR 34
Win chance	CAR 59%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	2	1.01	1	40%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	4	0.89	1	32%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.6	4	1.00	0	33%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	4	0.77	0	28%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	0	0.75	1	26%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.4	3	0.75	1	24%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	2	0.77	1	28%	1
CAR B. Burns	2.2	1	0.46	1	11%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	2	0.43	0	21%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	2	1.11	1	27%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.8	0	0.44	1	9%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.8	2	0.56	0	21%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.7	0	0.41	3	16%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	2	0.56	1	23%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	4	0.42	3	15%	3
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.6	2	0.41	0	16%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	1	0.38	1	7%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	1	0.51	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	0	0.29	0	9%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	3	0.22	0	6%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	0	0.46	1	12%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.4	2	0.32	0	10%	0
CAR T. Smith	1.4	2	0.26	1	6%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.4	2	0.29	1	16%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	0	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.3	5	0.30	1	14%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.2	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	5	0.31	1	12%	1
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	2	0.17	1	9%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	3	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.8	2	0.24	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.