Game Recap: TOR 4, CAR 1, April 13, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TOR4

FinalSun, Apr 13, 2025Every game that night

CAR1

TOR beat CAR 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.40 expected goals to 3.10. M. Rielly led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Svechnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Woll stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	1	2	4
CAR	0	0	1	1

1st 19:43TORP. Holmberg0.21 xG
2nd 10:20TORA. Matthews0.10 xG
3rd 1:25TORW. Nylander0.08 xG
3rd 7:58CARS. AhoPP0.07 xG
3rd 15:43TORJ. Tavares0.22 xG

Team Stats

TORCAR

20Shots on goal26

2.40Expected goals3.10

40Shot attempts73

195v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play1/4

18Hits27

18Blocked shots5

8Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways15

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.40 xGCAR 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR20 on goal, 4 scored

CAR26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Domi	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	13:42	1:11
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:40	2:47
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	+2	0	17:09	2:47
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	17:03	3:53
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	16:47	2:52
P. Holmberg	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	10:30	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:07	2:49
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:03	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:57	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:07	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	11:29	1:08
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	10:51	1:13
M. Rielly	D	0	3	3	0	0	2	+3	0	19:02	1:13
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	22:01	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	21:38	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	4	20:13	0:07
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	2	15:32	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	4	4	1	0	0	19:28	3:08
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:10	3:09
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	17:44	3:49
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	16:30	3:52
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-2	0	15:55	3:50
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	2	15:40	3:08
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:25	3:10
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:34	3:46
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	14:01	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	12:45	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:41	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	10:30	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	18:43	3:45
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	21:53	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:57	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	19:11	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	16:45	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:34	3:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	20	16	4	.800	59:34	Loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJack Roslovic TOR Faces CAR, his team until May 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.9, CAR 3.4	TOR 4, CAR 1
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	TOR 24.3, CAR 32.9	TOR 20, CAR 26
Win chance	CAR 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	2	1.05	1	41%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.6	1	0.83	1	32%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	1	0.77	1	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	4	0.86	1	31%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	4	0.75	1	29%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	0	0.46	0	17%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	2	0.51	0	21%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.1	1	0.42	1	10%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.0	1	1.06	1	28%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.0	5	0.61	0	22%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.0	2	0.56	0	22%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	1	0.63	0	25%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	0	0.24	0	7%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	3	0.39	0	20%	0
CAR S. Morrow	1.9	0	0.33	0	6%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.8	0	0.42	0	9%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.7	1	0.49	0	18%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	1	0.43	0	16%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	2	0.37	0	7%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.31	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.26	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.5	3	0.36	0	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	1	0.30	0	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.3	0	0.43	3	6%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	1	0.41	2	12%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.2	0	0.32	0	17%	0
CAR T. Jost	1.2	2	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.1	0	0.30	0	13%	0
TOR P. Myers	0.9	0	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.8	1	0.14	1	4%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	2	0.21	1	9%	1
TOR D. Mermis	0.6	1	0.10	0	3%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.10	1	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.