Game Recap: TOR 5, CAR 1, December 4, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR5

FinalThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night

CAR1

TOR beat CAR 5-1, with the chances close: 4.07 expected goals to 3.90. CAR outshot TOR 33 to 24. B. McMann led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Woll stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	2	1	5
CAR	1	0	0	1

1st 0:53TORB. McMann0.12 xG
1st 11:45TORS. Laughton0.26 xG
1st 15:45CARS. Jarvis0.22 xG
2nd 4:44TORM. Knies0.18 xG
2nd 10:39TORA. Matthews0.26 xG
3rd 18:16TORB. McMannEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

TORCAR

24Shots on goal33

4.07Expected goals3.90

37Shot attempts79

195v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/3

20Hits18

20Blocked shots4

6Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways13

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.07 xGCAR 3.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR24 on goal, 5 scored

CAR33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	18:04	1:54
M. Domi	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:52	1:35
N. Roy	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:36	1:37
B. McMann	C	2	0	2	3	2	0	+2	0	14:33	0:03
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	5	1	6	+2	2	20:08	2:20
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	14:19	0:04
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	16:49	2:04
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:30	2:19
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:55	2:18
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	13:27	0:02
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	10:45	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:00	1:38
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+3	0	22:23	0:08
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	2	19:52	1:49
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+2	0	17:03	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	11:18	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	24:23	0:06
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	22:03	2:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	24	23	1	.958	40:00	Win
D. Hildeby	9	9	0	1.000	20:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:38	4:08
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	18:53	4:07
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	2	17:45	4:08
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:55	4:15
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	15:42	1:52
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:02	1:35
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	14:51	1:51
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	14:04	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:41	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	13:10	1:54
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:32	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:39	3:41
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	25:21	2:18
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	21:39	0:11
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:57	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:10	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	23	19	4	.826	57:23	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews14:52M. Knies14:18M. Domi13:17

Line 2D. Joshua12:06B. McMann13:44N. Roy10:11

Line 3J. Tavares13:15E. Cowan11:22W. Nylander11:48

Line 4S. Laughton10:20S. Lorentz7:41N. Robertson8:22

Pair 1T. Stecher19:19J. McCabe17:43

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson18:58M. Rielly15:43

Pair 3S. Benoit13:10P. Myers10:46

CAR

Line 1J. Martinook12:44W. Carrier14:04J. Staal11:27

Line 2S. Aho12:57S. Jarvis12:00A. Svechnikov12:02

Line 3L. Stankoven12:16N. Ehlers11:58J. Blake11:15

Line 4M. Jankowski10:42E. Robinson10:58T. Hall9:49

Pair 1A. Nikishin19:45S. Walker16:56

Pair 2M. Reilly13:58J. Nystrom12:10

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere15:46J. Chatfield16:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.7, CAR 3.4	TOR 5, CAR 1
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	TOR 22.9, CAR 34.6	TOR 24, CAR 33
Win chance	CAR 62%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.3	5	0.97	1	39%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	5	0.89	1	32%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.8	5	0.78	0	28%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	3	0.86	0	32%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	1	0.80	0	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	2	0.95	1	32%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	1	0.99	0	34%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.4	3	0.38	0	12%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	3	0.51	0	19%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	1	0.54	0	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	3	0.77	2	26%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	1	0.74	1	13%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.8	1	0.50	0	18%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	2	0.53	0	19%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.7	3	0.36	2	17%	2
CAR A. Nikishin	1.6	1	0.34	0	8%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.4	2	0.21	0	5%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.47	2	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	0	0.35	0	17%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	1	0.42	2	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.26	0	9%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	0	0.38	0	14%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.3	2	0.49	1	8%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	2	0.25	0	13%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.2	1	0.19	0	4%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.1	1	0.36	0	7%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.1	2	0.28	1	11%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	0	0.30	0	14%	0
TOR P. Myers	0.9	0	0.10	1	3%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.8	0	0.29	1	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.10	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.