Game Recap: TOR 4, CGY 2, February 2, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TOR4

FinalMon, Feb 2, 2026Every game that night

CGY2

TOR beat CGY 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.93 expected goals to 1.98. CGY outshot TOR 30 to 22. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Coronato had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Woll stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	2	1	4
CGY	0	2	0	2

1st 0:35TORW. Nylander0.13 xG
2nd 7:17TORM. Maccelli0.03 xG
2nd 9:10TORT. Stecher0.46 xG
2nd 13:15CGYN. Kadri0.10 xG
2nd 15:46CGYJ. Farabee0.11 xG
3rd 19:35TORB. McMannEN0.66 xG

Team Stats

TORCGY

22Shots on goal30

2.93Expected goals1.98

51Shot attempts70

165v5 shots on goal29

0/0Power play0/1

14Hits20

27Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways15

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.93 xGCGY 1.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 4 scored

CGY30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+1	0	17:00	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:33	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:45	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	16:35	0:00
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	14:54	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:06	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:16	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:45	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:28	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:15	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:21	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:53	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	21:19	0:00
T. Stecher	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	+1	0	20:08	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	+1	0	23:46	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	0	0	18:56	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:31	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	17:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	0	19:15	1:13
J. Farabee	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	15:59	0:04
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	7	0	0	-1	0	19:27	1:12
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:49	0:41
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-3	0	16:24	1:12
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	16:16	0:46
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:53	0:44
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	14:46	0:46
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	14:26	0:58
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	10:43	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:59	0:02
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	20:59	1:00
J. Hanley	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	16:36	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:59	0:22
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:48	0:11
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:05	0:49
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	18:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	21	18	3	.857	58:41	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander16:01M. Maccelli17:33J. Tavares15:49

Line 2M. Domi14:28A. Matthews15:19B. McMann14:38

Line 3M. Knies12:45N. Roy13:11N. Robertson12:12

Line 4C. Jarnkrok10:24S. Laughton11:44S. Lorentz9:51

Pair 1J. McCabe20:31B. Carlo18:34

Pair 2P. Myers17:29S. Benoit17:39

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson17:38T. Stecher17:39

CGY

Line 1Y. Sharangovich15:52M. Coronato16:56M. Backlund15:30

Line 2N. Kadri15:44J. Farabee14:07C. Zary12:59

Line 3M. Frost14:35M. Gridin14:23J. Huberdeau13:28

Line 4R. Lomberg10:35M. Pospisil8:57A. Klapka10:43

Pair 1K. Bahl19:38Z. Whitecloud19:38

Pair 2M. Weegar18:55Y. Kuznetsov18:20

Pair 3J. Hanley15:35Z. Parekh17:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownWilliam Nylander TOR Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, CGY 3.3	TOR 4, CGY 2
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	TOR 27.4, CGY 32.6	TOR 22, CGY 30
Win chance	CGY 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	2	1.05	1	42%	0
CGY N. Kadri	2.9	3	0.75	2	26%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.7	2	0.62	0	21%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	1	0.81	1	31%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	7	0.56	0	22%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	0	0.56	1	13%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	1	0.51	1	24%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.2	2	0.55	0	24%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.0	3	0.80	3	29%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.9	0	0.67	0	23%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	2	0.39	2	17%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.8	2	0.47	0	18%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	1	0.61	0	17%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	0	0.65	0	20%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	1	0.46	0	16%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.7	4	0.40	0	16%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.42	0	19%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	2	0.54	1	17%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.44	0	8%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	0	0.28	0	8%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	1	0.31	0	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.2	2	0.31	1	13%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	2	0.25	0	9%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	4	0.18	1	4%	1
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	2	0.26	0	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.1	0	0.18	0	8%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	1	0.11	0	3%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	1	0.36	0	14%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.14	1	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.32	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.0	1	0.22	0	7%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	2	0.09	0	2%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.