Game Recap: TOR 5, CHI 2, February 23, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR5

FinalSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

CHI2

TOR beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.64 expected goals to 1.58. N. Robertson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Robertson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Woll stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	3	2	5
CHI	1	1	0	2

1st 19:49CHIT. TeravainenPP0.30 xG
2nd 7:09TORN. RobertsonPP0.19 xG
2nd 9:45TORJ. McCabe0.02 xG
2nd 19:45TORN. Robertson0.26 xG
2nd 19:53CHIP. Kurashev0.10 xG
3rd 12:07TORC. Tanev0.05 xG
3rd 18:28TORP. HolmbergEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

TORCHI

30Shots on goal27

3.64Expected goals1.58

64Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play1/1

19Hits16

18Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways11

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.64 xGCHI 1.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR30 on goal, 5 scored

CHI27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Domi	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	13:19	2:39
N. Robertson	LW	2	0	2	5	1	0	0	0	13:05	2:45
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:15	1:57
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:12	2:02
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:29	2:40
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	16:17	2:47
P. Holmberg	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	15:53	0:34
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	11:49	0:31
D. Kampf	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:27	0:48
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:46	2:35
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	16:05	2:02
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	10:24	0:10
J. McCabe	D	1	1	2	2	0	5	+3	0	21:49	0:51
C. Tanev	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	2	20:33	0:07
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	21:28	1:58
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	20:36	1:54
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:33	0:45
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	27	25	2	.926	59:39	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	2	2	0	1	0	-1	0	17:35	1:27
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:57	1:27
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-3	0	17:29	1:27
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:21	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:36	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	20:43	1:27
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:26	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	12:20	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	11:02	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:01	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	23:11	1:27
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:57	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	21:20	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	18:56	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	14:47	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	29	25	4	.862	57:26	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake McCabe TOR Faces CHI, his team until Feb 20231 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces TOR, his team until May 20242 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.4, CHI 2.5	TOR 5, CHI 2
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	TOR 30.8, CHI 25.5	TOR 30, CHI 27
Win chance	TOR 64%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.5	4	1.26	1	49%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.7	1	1.11	1	41%	0
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	2	0.93	1	34%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.7	0	0.55	1	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	1	0.90	0	27%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.6	1	0.64	1	24%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.4	0	1.28	0	32%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.1	1	0.52	0	10%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	1	0.70	0	28%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.8	0	0.32	0	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	2	0.61	0	9%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	0	0.54	2	23%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	3	0.70	1	23%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	4	0.40	0	19%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.7	2	0.54	2	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	5	0.33	2	17%	2
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.6	2	0.40	0	7%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	3	0.42	1	16%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	1	0.42	0	16%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.3	0	0.30	0	14%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	2	0.31	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.2	2	0.36	2	6%	1
CHI A. Martinez	1.2	3	0.29	0	7%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	2	0.24	0	6%	0
TOR A. Steeves	1.2	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.2	3	0.33	1	14%	1
CHI P. Maroon	1.1	0	0.27	0	9%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	1	0.28	0	10%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	3	0.33	1	12%	1
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	2	0.24	1	10%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.25	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	2	0.21	1	10%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	2	0.28	2	3%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.