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Game Recap
TOR2
FinalSat, Nov 15, 2025Every game that night
CHI3

CHI beat TOR 3-2, with the chances close: 3.64 expected goals to 2.99. O. Ekman-Larsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Knight stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
TOR1102
CHI1023
  1. 1st 11:05CHIR. Greene0.17 xG
  2. 1st 19:12TORN. Robertson0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 9:37TORM. Rielly0.17 xG
  4. 3rd 5:12CHIT. Teravainen0.18 xG
  5. 3rd 15:35CHIC. Dach0.04 xG

Team Stats

TORCHI
33Shots on goal32
2.99Expected goals3.64
64Shot attempts58
285v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/2
28Hits15
5Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways19
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.99 xGCHI 3.64 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdCHI goal, 11:05TOR goal, 19:12TOR goal, 9:37CHI goal, 5:12CHI goal, 15:35

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR33 on goal, 2 scored
CHI31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. NylanderRW0110000021:413:18
J. TavaresC0113200020:052:50
N. RobertsonLW1014200018:223:10
M. KniesLW0000400020:123:16
N. RoyC0005100019:452:43
E. CowanRW0003000416:373:01
M. DomiC000000-1012:172:45
D. JoshuaC0002500011:550:00
M. MaccelliLW000000-1011:162:44
S. LorentzC0000100010:550:00
B. McMannC000300-1010:350:00
C. JarnkrokC0002300010:120:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD0115010026:412:59
M. RiellyD1014000025:213:14
J. McCabeD000122-2024:550:00
S. BenoitD000051+1019:280:00
P. MyersD000021-208:470:00
D. MermisD000110+108:200:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll32293.90658:36Loss
D. Hildeby000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TeravainenC1013010020:543:40
F. NazarC0112020018:542:17
I. MikheyevRW0112010017:130:00
R. GreeneC101100+1016:320:00
O. MooreC011200+1013:000:13
C. DachC101130009:400:00
C. BedardC0005010220:283:47
A. BurakovskyLW0000010020:063:38
R. DonatoC0002200213:020:20
N. FolignoLW000321+1010:411:43
S. LaffertyC000100008:410:00
L. SlaggertLW000030008:240:00
A. LevshunovD0114240021:343:40
W. KaiserD0112110018:530:00
L. CrevierD011211+1016:340:00
A. VlasicD000000+1021:340:00
C. MurphyD0001130021:220:20
M. GrzelcykD0001010016:280:22
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight33312.93960:00Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Tavares15:51W. Nylander16:59N. Robertson14:02
Line 2M. Knies13:46N. Roy14:56E. Cowan13:22
Line 3D. Joshua11:35S. Lorentz9:07C. Jarnkrok8:18
Line 4M. Domi9:11M. Maccelli8:32B. McMann10:16
Pair 1J. McCabe21:35S. Benoit17:20
Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson20:59M. Rielly20:43

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky16:28C. Bedard16:10R. Greene14:28
Line 2T. Teravainen13:06F. Nazar13:41O. Moore12:47
Line 3R. Donato12:42I. Mikheyev12:36C. Dach9:40
Line 4S. Lafferty8:41L. Slaggert8:24N. Foligno7:03
Pair 1A. Levshunov17:54W. Kaiser16:08
Pair 2C. Murphy16:25M. Grzelcyk16:06
Pair 3A. Vlasic16:55L. Crevier13:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreTOR 3.4, CHI 3.0TOR 2, CHI 3
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalTOR 28.7, CHI 27.0TOR 33, CHI 32
Win chanceTOR 57%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR W. Nylander3.101.19140%0
TOR J. Tavares3.130.98136%0
CHI C. Bedard2.750.94027%0
TOR M. Knies2.500.91031%0
CHI I. Mikheyev2.120.53124%0
TOR N. Robertson2.040.47122%1
TOR B. McMann1.930.41021%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.900.68021%0
CHI F. Nazar1.920.57122%0
CHI R. Donato1.920.56022%0
TOR M. Rielly1.640.64111%1
CHI O. Moore1.620.44114%0
TOR E. Cowan1.530.40014%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.530.74122%1
TOR N. Roy1.450.46018%0
TOR M. Domi1.400.46014%0
TOR M. Maccelli1.400.47015%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.450.4719%0
TOR P. Myers1.200.1405%0
CHI C. Dach1.210.25110%1
CHI N. Foligno1.230.40014%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.100.2704%0
CHI R. Greene1.010.33115%1
TOR D. Joshua1.020.34016%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.020.2115%0
TOR S. Lorentz1.000.24010%0
TOR J. McCabe1.010.3907%0
CHI A. Levshunov0.940.3913%0
TOR D. Mermis0.910.1705%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk0.910.2802%0
TOR C. Jarnkrok0.920.28013%0
CHI L. Crevier0.920.2417%0
CHI L. Slaggert0.800.2009%0
CHI C. Murphy0.810.1704%0
CHI S. Lafferty0.810.1909%0
TOR S. Benoit0.700.1303%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.