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Game Recap
TOR4
COL7
COL beat TOR 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.50 expected goals to 1.59. COL outshot TOR 34 to 21. V. Nichushkin scored three for COL. M. Necas had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. M. Blackwood stopped 17 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| COL | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
- 1st 0:56COLV. Nichushkin0.06 xG
- 1st 3:04TORM. Marner0.15 xG
- 1st 6:08COLV. Nichushkin0.10 xG
- 1st 12:51TORJ. Tavares0.10 xG
- 1st 16:04TORM. Marner0.05 xG
- 2nd 12:45TORJ. TavaresPP0.21 xG
- 2nd 15:11COLJ. Kiviranta0.15 xG
- 3rd 11:55COLJ. Drouin0.17 xG
- 3rd 15:45COLN. MacKinnonPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:06COLV. NichushkinEN0.57 xG
- 3rd 19:07COLN. MacKinnonEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
TORCOL
21Shots on goal34
1.59Expected goals4.50
44Shot attempts69
165v5 shots on goal26
1/1Power play1/3
23Hits23
14Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways10
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 1.59 xGCOL 4.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:31 |
| M. Marner | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:21 | 0:31 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 18:13 | 0:31 |
| J. Tavares | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:31 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:31 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 58:39 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:44 | 2:13 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:28 | 5:44 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:33 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:36 | 5:13 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:49 | 3:31 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:39 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 4:06 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:02 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 4:34 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 1:13 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 59:35 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 2.9, COL 3.3 | TOR 4, COL 7 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 26.0, COL 30.6 | TOR 21, COL 34 |
| Win chance | COL 58% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.0 | 2 | 1.12 | 3 | 44% | 0 |
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 3 | 1.39 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.2 | 2 | 0.98 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.9 | 3 | 1.09 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.8 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.7 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 6 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.78 | 4 | 32% | 3 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.1 | 4 | 1.12 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.0 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.3 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 0 | 0.19 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.