Game Recap: TOR 4, COL 3 (OT), January 12, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR4

Final/OTMon, Jan 12, 2026Every game that night

COL3

TOR beat COL 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.26 expected goals to 3.17. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). B. McMann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Woll stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	1	1	1	1	4
COL	2	0	1	0	3

1st 11:15TORE. Cowan0.01 xG
1st 16:12COLC. Makar0.05 xG
1st 17:53COLB. NelsonPP0.11 xG
2nd 2:12TORB. McMann0.09 xG
3rd 10:24TORA. Matthews0.06 xG
3rd 12:55COLM. Necas0.18 xG
OT 3:59TORW. Nylander0.11 xG

Team Stats

TORCOL

31Shots on goal34

2.26Expected goals3.17

53Shot attempts71

225v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play1/3

13Hits14

22Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways21

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.26 xGCOL 3.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR31 on goal, 4 scored

COL34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	2	25:29	2:37
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	21:29	2:26
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	6	1	0	+1	2	18:06	1:29
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	11:10	1:23
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	21:27	2:27
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:26	1:34
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:36	1:23
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:29	2:37
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:14	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	11:51	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:08	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1:14	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	20:53	1:23
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-2	0	22:16	0:04
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+2	2	20:45	2:37
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	+1	0	20:38	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:41	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	16:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	34	31	3	.912	63:06	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	3	3	3	1	0	+1	0	24:40	3:53
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	5	1	1	+2	2	22:31	2:55
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-2	0	22:09	2:53
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:39	2:20
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	18:24	1:03
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:58	0:12
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:24	1:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	0	15:03	1:35
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:28	0:10
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:52	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:04	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4:34	0:07
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	2	27:22	2:03
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	22:09	0:12
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:11	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:42	2:02
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:10	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Miner	31	28	4	.903	63:28	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi16:13A. Matthews17:19M. Knies16:47

Line 2J. Tavares15:03W. Nylander15:14M. Maccelli12:56

Line 3E. Cowan9:36N. Roy10:23B. McMann14:51

Line 4S. Laughton9:09S. Lorentz6:46

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson17:04J. McCabe18:07

Pair 2B. Carlo17:40M. Rielly15:11

Pair 3T. Stecher14:58S. Benoit14:04

COL

Line 1M. Necas18:14N. MacKinnon18:07A. Lehkonen15:23

Line 2P. Kelly12:37J. Drury13:12V. Olofsson12:48

Line 3B. Nelson14:00R. Colton12:46V. Nichushkin13:36

Line 4I. Ivan4:31G. Brindley5:19Z. Bardakov4:27

Pair 1C. Makar20:16S. Malinski18:33

Pair 2B. Burns15:20J. Manson16:57

Pair 3S. Girard17:21I. Solovyov9:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, COL 4.0	TOR 4, COL 3
Total goals	6.8	7
Shots on goal	TOR 24.8, COL 35.9	TOR 31, COL 34
Win chance	COL 67%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	3	1.39	3	39%	0
TOR A. Matthews	3.4	2	0.83	2	37%	1
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	1.11	2	28%	1
COL M. Necas	2.6	5	1.00	2	29%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.6	1	0.75	0	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	4	0.84	1	33%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	1	0.69	0	28%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.2	3	0.64	0	27%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	6	0.41	1	21%	1
COL B. Burns	2.0	3	0.45	0	12%	0
COL R. Colton	2.0	5	0.44	0	17%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.0	4	0.71	2	28%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.59	0	23%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	2	0.40	0	8%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.41	0	18%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	2	0.42	0	10%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.35	0	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	3	0.47	0	8%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	3	0.43	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	1	0.29	0	12%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.4	1	0.32	1	14%	1
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.46	0	15%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.4	0	0.40	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	1	0.32	0	12%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.30	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	2	0.37	2	7%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	1	0.35	0	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.24	0	10%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.34	0	7%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.9	2	0.23	0	4%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.8	0	0.28	0	7%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.8	2	0.27	0	4%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.