Game Recap: TOR 6, COL 3, October 10, 2026

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Game Recap

TOR6

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

COL3

TOR beat COL 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.24 expected goals to 4.73. COL outshot TOR 33 to 23. W. Nylander led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. S. Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 33.

Team Stats

TORCOL

23Shots on goal33

2.24Expected goals4.73

40Shot attempts77

195v5 shots on goal22

2/4Power play0/5

22Hits16

22Blocked shots10

12Penalty minutes10

10Giveaways14

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.24 xGCOL 4.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR21 on goal, 5 scored

COL32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	3	5	4	0	0	+1	0	19:51	4:11
A. Matthews	C	2	2	4	5	0	3	0	0	22:06	4:04
N. Paul	LW	0	2	2	0	2	1	+2	0	17:15	0:49
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	2	16:53	3:36
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	16:07	0:32
G. McKenna	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:21	4:04
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	16:50	0:09
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	2	15:21	1:18
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:59	0:08
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	4	10:58	0:15
B. Groulx	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:05	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	18:48	1:00
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:11	0:54
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	23:40	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	2	21:13	4:05
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	2	18:33	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	3:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	33	30	3	.909	59:55	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	0	2	8	0	0	0	2	23:56	7:57
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	24:07	8:03
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	17:47	2:01
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:50	7:58
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:19	3:12
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:52	3:35
T. Hughes	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	14:00	6:11
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	11:35	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	11:18	0:37
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:39	1:54
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	8:59	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	7:57	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	2	21:37	7:40
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:05	2:12
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:02	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:24	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	15:55	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	22	17	5	.773	56:56	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1J. Roslovic13:57A. Matthews14:46K. Marchenko13:17

Line 2W. Nylander15:04N. Paul11:55E. Cowan15:10

Line 3T. Blueger9:01B. Duhaime7:19C. Sissons11:36

Line 4B. Groulx8:23G. McKenna11:12

Pair 1D. Raddysh14:09J. McCabe15:19

Pair 2N. Blankenburg15:17M. Rielly16:24

Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson12:09T. Stecher12:36

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon14:45M. Necas14:55A. Lehkonen13:57

Line 2B. Nelson12:38G. Landeskog13:17N. Kadri11:52

Line 3N. Roy8:07P. Kelly8:58Z. L'Heureux7:37

Line 4F. Svechkov9:45T. Hughes7:45J. Schwartz8:41

Pair 1B. Kulak16:43S. Malinski17:51

Pair 2D. Toews13:14C. Makar12:57

Pair 3B. Burns13:37J. Manson13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
COL N. MacKinnon	4.5	+130	-160	8	Over
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	-115	-102	5	Over
COL B. Nelson	2.5	+160	-190	4	Over
COL C. Makar	2.5	-130	+115	3	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	+126	-155	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	2.5	+180	-196	2	Under
COL M. Necas	2.5	-130	+120	2	Under
COL N. Kadri	2.5	-115	-110	3	Over
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	+105	-122	4	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-150	+130	1	Under
COL B. Burns	1.5	-130	+130	1	Under
COL D. Toews	1.5	-115	-105	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	+100	-110	2	Over
COL J. Manson	1.5	+125	-150	1	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	1.5	-160	+128	5	Over
COL J. Schwartz	1.5	-110	-120	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	+145	–	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	1.5	+130	–	0	Under

5 of 31 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+250	-285	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+170	-220	2	Over
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
TOR B. Duhaime	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
TOR B. Groulx	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+2000	-2500	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+250	-330	1	Over
COL C. Makar	0.5	+255	-370	0	Under
TOR C. Sissons	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+370	-475	1	Over
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
TOR J. McCabe	0.5	+2100	–	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+380	-475	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+150	-150	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+900	–	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+230	-350	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+105	-130	2	Over
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	0.5	+1000	–	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
TOR T. Blueger	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
TOR T. Stecher	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+200	-240	2	Over
COL Z. L'Heureux	0.5	+650	–	0	Under

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+275	-375	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+130	-170	2	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+175	-205	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-150	+120	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+215	-290	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+275	-325	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+330	-390	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-105	+100	1	Over
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+260	-360	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-186	+165	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+330	-475	2	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+150	-165	3	Over

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL C. Makar	1.5	+190	-260	1	Under
COL M. Necas	1.5	+165	-170	1	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+110	-115	2	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+125	-130	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	-175	+140	4	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	-105	-105	1	Over
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+105	-115	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+120	-120	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+145	-155	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+154	-175	0	Under
TOR M. Rielly	0.5	+185	-255	1	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-115	-105	0	Under
TOR N. Paul	0.5	+170	-230	2	Over
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	-170	+140	5	Over

2 of 14 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TOR A. Matthews	0.5	+200	-300	2	Over
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+175	-185	0	Under
TOR D. Raddysh	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
TOR E. Cowan	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+390	-650	0	Under
TOR J. Roslovic	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+275	-425	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+175	-180	0	Under
TOR W. Nylander	0.5	+225	-325	2	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
COL M. Blackwood	23.5	-120	-105	17	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	-190	+135	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Roy COL Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.7, COL 4.2	TOR 6, COL 3
Total goals	6.9	9
Shots on goal	TOR 23.6, COL 37.4	TOR 23, COL 33
Win chance	COL 71%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	8	1.54	2	41%	2
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	5	0.95	4	40%	2
COL N. Kadri	3.0	3	0.82	0	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.9	2	1.22	1	32%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	3	1.12	1	30%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	4	1.01	5	36%	2
TOR K. Marchenko	2.7	0	0.74	1	28%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.6	2	0.88	0	31%	0
TOR D. Raddysh	2.5	0	0.66	0	13%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	1	0.71	0	28%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	4	0.69	1	29%	1
COL S. Malinski	2.0	0	0.40	0	10%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	1	0.40	0	11%	0
TOR J. Roslovic	1.9	5	0.45	0	19%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.9	0	0.57	0	21%	0
TOR N. Paul	1.8	0	0.41	2	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	0	0.58	1	13%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.7	2	0.48	1	18%	1
COL J. Manson	1.7	1	0.40	0	9%	0
TOR G. McKenna	1.6	2	0.44	1	15%	0
COL Z. L'Heureux	1.5	1	0.27	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	0	0.41	0	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.3	0	0.40	1	8%	0
COL N. Roy	1.2	2	0.40	0	15%	0
COL F. Svechkov	1.2	1	0.36	0	12%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	1	0.26	1	5%	0
TOR C. Sissons	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
TOR T. Blueger	1.0	1	0.25	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.27	0	4%	0
TOR B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR B. Groulx	0.8	0	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
TOR N. Blankenburg	0.6	1	0.14	1	4%	1
TOR C. Tanev	0.5	0	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.