Game Recap: TOR 5, DAL 3, December 18, 2024

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Game Recap

TOR5

FinalWed, Dec 18, 2024Every game that night

DAL3

TOR beat DAL 5-3, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 2.74. DAL outshot TOR 39 to 19. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Blackwell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Woll stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	1	3	1	5
DAL	1	1	1	3

1st 5:14DALS. Steel0.13 xG
1st 6:13TORM. Domi0.15 xG
2nd 0:22DALE. Dadonov0.09 xG
2nd 5:15TORW. Nylander0.23 xG
2nd 5:31TORN. Robertson0.06 xG
2nd 11:01TORB. McMann0.07 xG
3rd 17:44DALC. Blackwell0.09 xG
3rd 18:17TORW. NylanderEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

TORDAL

19Shots on goal39

2.99Expected goals2.74

35Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/4

25Hits9

16Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.99 xGDAL 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR19 on goal, 5 scored

DAL36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	16:27	1:55
N. Robertson	LW	1	1	2	1	3	2	+3	0	11:16	0:02
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	20:38	0:59
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	18:27	0:57
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	16:17	0:55
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+3	0	12:36	1:01
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+3	0	12:10	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	16:46	1:01
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	13:56	0:03
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:41	1:03
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	11:59	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	10:00	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:36	0:53
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	22:58	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:26	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	22:06	1:04
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	16:58	0:05
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	15:43	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	39	36	3	.923	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Dadonov	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	17:04	4:49
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	19:56	3:13
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:46	4:30
S. Steel	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	16:57	0:44
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	16:10	3:10
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:22	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	+2	0	11:19	0:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	20:37	4:56
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	17:47	3:11
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	17:12	3:02
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	12:17	1:34
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	10:35	2:29
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	29:50	7:35
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:38	0:31
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:50	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:13	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	14:21	0:16
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	14:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	12	8	4	.667	40:00	Loss
C. DeSmith	6	6	0	1.000	18:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChris Tanev TOR Faces DAL, his team until Jun 20240 SOG
BirthdayJake Oettinger DAL Turns 26 that day8 saves on 12

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, DAL 3.3	TOR 5, DAL 3
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	TOR 27.2, DAL 31.2	TOR 19, DAL 39
Win chance	DAL 58%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	2	1.00	1	42%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.2	4	0.95	2	35%	2
TOR J. Tavares	3.0	0	0.77	1	29%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	2	0.73	1	30%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.3	0	0.52	1	17%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.2	2	0.83	0	29%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	2	0.38	1	20%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	3	0.65	1	11%	0
DAL M. Marchment	2.1	3	0.68	0	25%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.76	0	32%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.0	1	1.02	1	27%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	0	0.50	0	18%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	1	0.78	0	29%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.50	1	8%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.7	3	0.67	1	21%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.6	0	0.52	0	22%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.5	1	0.32	0	7%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	2	0.48	1	13%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	0	0.30	0	6%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.29	2	15%	1
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	3	0.41	2	17%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.1	4	0.36	1	12%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	6	0.22	1	11%	1
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	2	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	1	0.25	0	5%	0
DAL M. Bourque	0.9	3	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	1	0.28	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.09	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	0	0.29	1	9%	0
DAL B. Smith	0.7	2	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.7	2	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	3	0.19	0	2%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.6	1	0.08	0	2%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.4	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.