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Game Recap
TOR2
DET4
DET beat TOR 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 2.62. J. Petry led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. McMann had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. V. Husso stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| DET | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 9:07DETM. Rasmussen0.12 xG
- 2nd 11:40TORA. MatthewsPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:42DETM. Seider0.12 xG
- 3rd 1:07TORM. Knies0.06 xG
- 3rd 1:51DETJ. Petry0.30 xG
- 3rd 19:58DETL. RaymondEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
TORDET
25Shots on goal26
2.62Expected goals3.85
62Shot attempts63
235v5 shots on goal22
1/2Power play0/3
19Hits13
19Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes4
9Giveaways11
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
TOR 2.62 xGDET 3.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:01 | 1:52 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:00 | 2:32 |
| A. Matthews | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:01 | 1:53 |
| M. Knies | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:55 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:37 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:50 | 0:54 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:13 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:43 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| J. McCabe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:15 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:17 | 1:37 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:57 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:14 | 0:27 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Woll | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 58:14 | Loss |
| D. Hildeby | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 2:10 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 2:09 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:10 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:47 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:47 | 3:31 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 6:45 | 0:17 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:35 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 3:34 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:15 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:15 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:49 | 1:45 |
| J. Petry | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:17 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 2:17 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:29 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 3:28 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Husso | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Campbell | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR 3.4, DET 3.0 | TOR 2, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | TOR 30.6, DET 28.0 | TOR 25, DET 26 |
| Win chance | TOR 56% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.3 | 4 | 1.19 | 1 | 47% | 1 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.6 | 4 | 1.09 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 3.4 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.5 | 5 | 0.44 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.4 | 3 | 1.23 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.9 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR F. Minten | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR J. McCabe | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.