Game Recap: TOR 2, DET 3 (OT), December 28, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR2

Final/OTSun, Dec 28, 2025Every game that night

DET3

DET beat TOR 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.73. DET outshot TOR 36 to 27. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Copp had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Talbot stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
TOR	0	1	1	0	2
DET	0	1	1	1	3

2nd 4:25TORM. KniesPP0.28 xG
2nd 19:01DETM. Seider0.04 xG
3rd 4:53TORN. Robertson0.12 xG
3rd 5:16DETM. Appleton0.13 xG
OT 1:46DETS. Edvinsson0.26 xG

Team Stats

TORDET

27Shots on goal36

2.73Expected goals2.92

58Shot attempts68

225v5 shots on goal31

1/2Power play0/1

24Hits12

11Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways14

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.73 xGDET 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR27 on goal, 2 scored

DET35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	17:47	2:36
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	-2	0	22:01	2:36
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:28	2:36
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	12:54	0:20
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	4	19:12	0:20
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:59	0:20
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:52	0:20
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:43	2:36
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:23	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:53	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	22:48	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:49	0:20
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:35	2:36
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	20:10	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:37	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	36	33	3	.917	61:46	OT loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:50	1:23
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	15:08	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:21	1:23
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	19:58	0:37
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	17:51	1:22
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	17:29	0:37
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:06	1:24
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:47	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:42	0:38
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:25	0:00
J. Leonard	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:31	0:36
S. Edvinsson	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	0	25:57	0:29
M. Seider	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	+1	2	24:24	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	13:55	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	2	22:36	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:07	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:47	1:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	27	25	2	.926	61:46	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi17:54B. McMann18:52A. Matthews17:40

Line 2J. Tavares14:30M. Knies14:35M. Maccelli12:23

Line 3N. Roy14:53N. Robertson12:34D. Joshua12:23

Line 4S. Laughton9:23S. Lorentz10:03E. Cowan9:53

Pair 1J. McCabe21:27C. Tanev19:01

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson20:45T. Stecher18:46

Pair 3M. Rielly16:19P. Myers13:59

DET

Line 1E. Finnie18:05L. Raymond17:51D. Larkin16:48

Line 2P. Kane15:45A. DeBrincat15:16A. Copp15:40

Line 3J. Compher15:19M. Appleton14:24M. Rasmussen13:00

Line 4M. Kasper8:05N. Danielson8:04J. Leonard6:55

Pair 1S. Edvinsson23:20M. Seider21:38

Pair 2B. Chiarot21:52A. Sandin-Pellikka14:16

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker15:55A. Johansson13:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDakota Joshua TOR Plays near home (born in Dearborn)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.1, DET 3.3	TOR 2, DET 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	TOR 25.6, DET 30.8	TOR 27, DET 36
Win chance	DET 53%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	5	1.00	1	41%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.4	1	0.86	0	32%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	1	0.93	0	34%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	4	0.77	0	23%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	3	0.82	2	32%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	3	0.92	1	26%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	3	0.63	1	11%	1
DET E. Finnie	2.1	2	0.46	0	19%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	3	0.44	0	22%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.9	3	0.70	1	25%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.65	0	12%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.6	2	0.47	0	17%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.6	1	0.29	0	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	3	0.39	1	18%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	1	0.55	0	15%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	5	0.48	0	15%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.53	0	17%	0
DET J. Leonard	1.4	1	0.26	0	13%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.43	0	9%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.3	1	0.28	0	11%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	3	0.23	0	8%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	0	0.33	1	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	4	0.41	1	11%	1
TOR N. Roy	1.2	0	0.42	0	16%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.2	3	0.28	1	10%	1
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.35	0	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	0	0.14	0	4%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.0	1	0.33	0	7%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.9	1	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	0	0.39	0	6%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	2	0.31	0	15%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	2	0.14	1	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.