Game Recap: TOR 5, EDM 2, February 3, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

TOR5

FinalTue, Feb 3, 2026Every game that night

EDM2

TOR beat EDM 5-2, with the chances close: 2.91 expected goals to 3.14. EDM outshot TOR 36 to 27. M. Maccelli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. McCabe had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Stolarz stopped 34 of 36.

Team Stats

TOREDM

27Shots on goal36

2.91Expected goals3.14

45Shot attempts68

225v5 shots on goal35

2/2Power play0/1

13Hits19

19Blocked shots7

9Penalty minutes21

18Giveaways13

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 2.91 xGEDM 3.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR25 on goal, 4 scored

EDM36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	15:28	1:04
M. Maccelli	LW	2	0	2	4	0	2	+1	0	11:29	0:31
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:11	1:04
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:46	1:04
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	5	4	0	0	0	17:36	0:31
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:00	0:31
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	14:54	1:04
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:42	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:05	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	11:25	0:31
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:09	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:20	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	4	1	3	+2	0	25:16	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	4	22:19	1:35
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:35	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	5	19:22	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	17:47	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	36	34	2	.944	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:11	0:09
K. Kapanen	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	15:03	0:05
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:14	0:07
J. Samanski	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:55	0:00
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	21:49	1:55
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:47	1:53
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	18:18	1:53
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:07	1:51
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	13:01	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	10	11:35	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	10:30	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	8:14	0:00
J. Walman	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	21:34	0:09
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	17:04	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	24:33	1:51
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:54	0:07
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	5	19:26	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	26	22	4	.846	59:30	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi15:54B. McMann16:00A. Matthews18:48

Line 2J. Tavares13:03W. Nylander15:52M. Maccelli10:58

Line 3N. Roy14:10M. Knies14:24N. Robertson10:54

Line 4C. Jarnkrok8:55S. Laughton12:41S. Lorentz9:36

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson20:44T. Stecher21:12

Pair 2J. McCabe22:06B. Carlo16:17

Pair 3S. Benoit16:27P. Myers11:34

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:13C. McDavid18:06R. Nugent-Hopkins14:57

Line 2K. Kapanen14:58V. Podkolzin14:07L. Draisaitl17:30

Line 3J. Roslovic14:50M. Savoie11:51J. Samanski9:55

Line 4T. Frederic11:35M. Janmark10:24A. Mangiapane8:14

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:26E. Bouchard20:18

Pair 2D. Nurse18:26J. Walman20:19

Pair 3T. Emberson16:23S. Stastney14:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJack Roslovic TOR Faces EDM, his team until Apr 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.1, EDM 4.1	TOR 5, EDM 2
Total goals	7.2	7
Shots on goal	TOR 25.5, EDM 34.7	TOR 27, EDM 36
Win chance	EDM 64%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.9	4	1.79	0	41%	0
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	0	0.98	1	40%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.3	1	0.94	0	40%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	4	1.52	0	44%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	2	1.16	0	24%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	2	0.78	1	30%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.1	5	0.49	1	23%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	4	0.41	0	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	2	0.89	0	25%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.0	4	0.49	1	13%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.0	3	0.81	1	29%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.9	2	0.49	1	20%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	2	0.54	0	13%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	3	0.42	1	14%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.7	1	0.64	2	22%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.6	2	0.57	1	15%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	1	0.41	1	16%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	4	0.54	2	17%	2
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.40	0	18%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	1	0.30	0	13%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	0	0.42	1	8%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.1	2	0.31	0	13%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.0	1	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.0	1	0.35	1	13%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.0	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	2	0.19	0	11%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	0.9	3	0.28	0	13%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	1	0.15	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	4	0.32	1	6%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	0	0.18	0	5%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.8	0	0.24	0	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.23	1	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.