Game Recap: TOR 4, FLA 1, December 2, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR4

FinalTue, Dec 2, 2025Every game that night

FLA1

TOR beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 1.98. T. Stecher led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Ekman-Larsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Woll stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	0	2	4
FLA	0	1	0	1

1st 5:24TORT. Stecher0.02 xG
1st 7:54TORD. Joshua0.09 xG
2nd 14:43FLAS. ReinhartSH0.13 xG
3rd 12:18TORS. Laughton0.43 xG
3rd 19:41TORJ. TavaresEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

TORFLA

31Shots on goal26

4.46Expected goals1.98

60Shot attempts62

245v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play0/1

22Hits27

20Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways10

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 4.46 xGFLA 1.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR31 on goal, 4 scored

FLA25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. McMann	C	0	2	2	1	3	1	+2	0	13:34	1:47
D. Joshua	C	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	2	11:07	0:00
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	4	1	2	0	0	20:36	3:27
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:19	2:55
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	17:45	3:02
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	10:52	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	10:23	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:22	3:05
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:37	2:56
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	0	16:21	2:42
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:15	1:19
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	9:55	0:00
T. Stecher	D	1	1	2	2	0	4	+4	0	24:26	1:07
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+4	0	24:27	1:48
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	20:33	2:59
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	20:33	2:53
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	14:00	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	21:49	1:24
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:13	0:55
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:13	1:22
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:21	1:05
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	3	3	-2	0	17:19	0:58
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	2	15:55	0:36
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:39	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	12:50	0:38
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	10:32	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	8:49	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
J. Devine	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	7:04	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	23:56	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	23:16	1:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	2	22:51	1:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:00	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:06	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:58	1:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	30	27	3	.900	58:53	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Knies16:17A. Matthews15:21M. Domi13:54

Line 2J. Tavares14:35E. Cowan14:56W. Nylander13:41

Line 3N. Roy12:43B. McMann11:47D. Joshua11:07

Line 4S. Laughton9:48N. Robertson9:55S. Lorentz9:22

Pair 1J. McCabe20:26T. Stecher21:20

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:34M. Rielly17:04

Pair 3P. Myers12:55S. Benoit13:10

FLA

Line 1B. Marchand16:24S. Reinhart16:39A. Lundell15:00

Line 2S. Bennett16:22M. Samoskevich14:33A. Greer15:30

Line 3E. Rodrigues12:32J. Boqvist11:56J. Studnicka10:32

Line 4L. Kunin7:59J. Devine7:04N. Gregor8:49

Pair 1A. Ekblad20:02G. Forsling20:44

Pair 2S. Jones18:37N. Mikkola18:07

Pair 3J. Petry11:56U. Balinskis13:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 202627 saves on 30

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 2.8, FLA 3.3	TOR 4, FLA 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	TOR 24.8, FLA 32.3	TOR 31, FLA 26
Win chance	FLA 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.2	4	0.95	1	39%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	1	0.98	1	38%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	0	0.67	0	27%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	3	0.85	1	32%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.6	3	0.91	0	31%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	0	1.01	0	35%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.4	2	0.78	1	23%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	1	0.53	0	19%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.1	2	0.46	0	17%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	3	0.78	0	26%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.9	0	0.54	0	19%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	2	0.54	0	13%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	1	0.52	0	11%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	3	0.61	0	9%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	1	0.42	0	11%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.6	1	0.33	2	17%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.6	3	0.36	0	15%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	0	0.37	0	18%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	5	0.43	0	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.3	0	0.38	0	16%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	1.3	3	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	3	0.42	1	13%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	3	0.40	0	16%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	1	0.25	0	6%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	0	0.12	0	4%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.1	1	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.1	1	0.27	1	11%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	3	0.23	0	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.34	0	5%	0
FLA J. Devine	1.0	1	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.23	1	10%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.9	2	0.14	2	4%	1
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.28	2	14%	1
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.